First Latino U.S. President Could Be 7th Grader

Barack Obama predicted that he’ll be alive to see a Latino candidate for president. He said a little bit more than that, but that’s the gist of his remark. If it was intended to raise eyebrows, turn heads and rouse a cheer, he succeeded. If what he wanted was to give Latino voters something to chew on, he did that as well. But if he did it to be prophetic…

His remark came at an “Open for Questions” roundtable put together by Yahoo!, MSN Latino, and AOL Latino/Huffington Post Latino Voices. What he said, and this is a direct quote from a USA Today reporter who was in the room when he said it, was:

I am absolutely confident that within my lifetime, we will have a Latino candidate for president who will be very competitive and may win.

I’m not the type to pick nits, but let’s spread the President’s statement apart a tweak, to see what’s inside.

I’m absolutely confident: Is that stronger than a certainty? You can be confident about something but not certain about it. It’s the type of statement that hedges a bet, but doesn’t go all in.

that within my lifetime: The President is my age, so that means within my lifetime as well. He’s got more pressures than I do, so I’ll probably outlive him. But then he seems to be in better shape than me, so it’s a toss-up. The life expectancy of an American male is about 79 years; that gives us both another 29 years to see a Latino candidate for president. It’s a sobering thought, if you’re average, that you’ve only got another 29 years to clear the bucket list. First item on my list: create a bucket list.

we will have a Latino candidate for president: An honest declarative fragment of a sentence that includes himself, unless he was talking in the royal “we,” in which case three years in office have gone to his head. It’s also a future-looking statement, that doesn’t take Bill Richardson into account. We’ve had a Latino candidate for President already.

who will be very competitive and may win: Competitive; may win. That explains the Richardson omission in the last fragment. I’m guessing that he’s talking about a candidate that makes it through the primary process and is nominated by his or her party. He said very competitive, as opposed to just plain competitive. He, more than anyone else, should know the difference. He also said “may” win, and that brings me back to the first part of the statement. “May” is to “confident” what “pleading” is to the “fifth.”

So he’s confident that a Latino candidate may win, in the next 29 years. That’s seven presidential elections into the future. That’ means that the Latino candidate he’s talking about has to be at least in grammar school today, given the minimum age requirement to be President of the United States, and assuming that he or she would be elected at the far end of Obama’s life expectancy – the  2040 election. So that future Latino candidate, or President, could be 7 years old today.

That throws a wrench into the speculation about who, today, could be a viable Latino candidate for president. There was talk about Florida’s Marco Rubio being the possible competitive Latino Presidential candidate. Someone of Rubio’s age and stature within his party is a possibility and falls within Obama’s time frame. So the possibilities run from Senator Rubio to a random second grader – and everyone in between.

Suddenly it’s not so prophetic a statement. Given the growth of the Latino community and the increased participation of Latinos in the political process it’s not a stretch, it’s more like something that’s bound to happen.

So we thank the president for saying it, this being Hispanic Heritage Month and all. He’s drawn attention to the possibility and maybe there’s a fourth grader somewhere who heard him say it and felt inspired.

The truth is that it’s only a matter a time – but then again, isn’t everything?