When it comes to Latino vote, Karl Rove is plain wrong

By James Aldrete, NewsTaco

In PolitiFact, Gardner Selby recently took on Karl Rove’s claim that Texas Republicans get on average 40% of the Latino vote.  While I’m sure Rove – known in Texas progressive circles as Darth Vader – was rounding up…let’s just say the force isn’t with him when it comes to the math.

Here are 6 reasons why PolitiFact and Karl Rove are wrong:

1. All polls are not equal.  A month before the presidential election Republican pollster Mike Baselice said Romney was taking 40% of the Texas Hispanic vote, while a Latino Decisions election eve poll put it at 29%.  That’s an 11-point gap that Selby doesn’t explore. Instead he simply averaged the two.  When Nate Silver was asked if most polls miss the mark on the Latino vote, his answer was, “yes”:  “In the past couple of elections, polls have underestimated Democrats’ standing in states with heavy Hispanic populations.” (The two senate races that the FiveThirtyEight forecast called incorrectly in 2010 — Nevada and Colorado — are both states with a healthy number of Hispanic voters.)
   
2. Bueno. ¿Quien habla?  Texas GOP Chair Steve Munisteiri’s claim that they polled 600 Hispanics, post-election, off the voter files means they called 600 Hispanics with landlines.  Research shows Hispanics are more reliant on cell phones, and this is even truer among younger Hispanics, and among first and second generation Hispanics.  They also don’t claim to use bilingual callers or report how many interviews were done in Spanish.  Spanish dominant Hispanics self identify more as Democrats. So if you believe Munisteiri’s claim that top-of-the ticket Republican’s were getting 40%, that’s 40% of older, assimilated Hispanics when younger, second generation Hispanics are driving the population growth.  This number, however, did not get averaged – much less weighted.
3. Rounding up, generously.  If a poll showing Ted Cruz earning 35% of the Hispanic vote qualifies as being “on the verge of 40%” just because there’s a 4.9% margin of error, then 2010 Texas Democratic Gubernatorial candidate Bill White qualified as being on “the verge” of being Governor.
4. Selectively choosing data.  Selby discards the Perry 2006 race because it was a 4-way race.  But he includes 2010 – a tough year for Democrats – with no disclaimer that the party that occupies the White House usually takes a hit in their first presidential mid-term … not to mention with the first African American president in the middle of an economic recession.  Democratic base turnout was at best anemic, but even at that Selby notes Greg Abbott outshined 9 other statewide candidates garnering 38% in Hispanic dominant Hidalgo County.  That means 9 other candidates got less than 38% in Hidalgo County, which according to my math would put them all under 40 even as they faced little to no opposition in the best year Republicans could imagine. In the presidential year, these numbers weren’t even close — “GOP nominees carried an average of 27 percent of El Paso County’s vote; 28 percent in Hidalgo County; and 32 percent in Cameron County.”  A note to liberal arts majors, the number 40 does not immediately follow 27, 28 or even 32 … not even if you average them.
5. It’s an unverifiable claim.  Despite acknowledging the warning from James Henson, UT’s Director for Public Policy Polling, that “since there is no direct measure for Latino voting” all conclusions will require extrapolation, Selby dubs Rove’s claim “mostly true.”  But Rove didn’t claim that polls average to 40%, he claimed Republicans “on average” get 40% of the Hispanic vote in Texas.  That’s a very different argument, and while not verifiable, it at least has enough holes to make it very doubtful.
6. What does “conservative” mean anyway?  New York pollster Micheline Blum chimes in, claiming Latinos in Texas are more conservative than Latinos across the nation.  Based on what?  If it’s self identified as “conservative,” that leaves out the context that the word has more of a social meaning than a political one to most Latinos.  If you’re talking about election results, that leaves out the fact that we’re not a battleground state and have had few contested general elections.  And it ignores polling showing Texas Hispanics supporting pro-choice positions, access to health care and support for the Affordable Care Act, equal rights for same sex couples, and tax increases on businesses and the wealthy to support education.

We credit Selby for talking to a number of sources and giving a variety of perspectives, including our own.  And we don’t begrudge Karl Rove for rounding up to make a point — it’s a point Republicans needs to hear. Because as you read this John Cornyn is trying to gut immigration reform, while Ted Cruz is trying to outright kill it.  Meanwhile, Obama-inspired Battleground Texas is putting real boots on the ground. Republicans would be wise to remember the 2012 elections exposed two problems they need to address.  Latinos was one of them.  Math was the other.

James Aldrete is president and creative director of Message Audience and Presentation, an Austin-based political consultancy. Follow Message Audience and Presentation on Tumblr.