Why there will be no movement on immigration in 2015

By Victor Landa, NewsTaco

Let me be the bearer of bad news: immigration reform will not happen in 2015. In fact, let me be candid: anything you hear coming from the 114th congress about immigration will be useless noise, and nothing more.

This is bad news, and good news. The bad news has several layers – we’ll be hearing hard-blowing statements about immigration all year long, and nothing will get done. Outside of Washington the consensus is that the immigration system needs fixing. Inside Washington the consensus is to pump new air into the immigration football and toss it around for another year. Not much has changed since January of 2014 when speaker John Boehner put together a one page list of GOP standards on immigration. He passed the list around to gauge the Republican sentiment and, well, that was that – nothing more happened. The problem, he said, was a matter of trust.

It’s what I call the GOP immigration paradox. Republicans want immigration reform, starting with securing the southern border. But they won’t say what that secure border looks like, nor do they trust the President to enforce the stronger border laws. It’s a great play to the base that doesn’t like Obama to begin with: stall on immigration and blame the bad guy. That dynamic hasn’t changed.

The good news about the immigration issue is that the President’s executive action won’t be turned back or repealed, or whatever it is that congress can do to Presidential executive actions. They can defund, but the only Obama Executive Action thing they can defund is increased border security. Most other costs will be covered by application fees, although there are differing opinions on this matter. I advise paying attention to what Congress does, and not so much what members of congress say. The GOP congress will be harsh on immigration, and vague. It doesn’t suit them to be specific when broad stroke slogans attacking the president help to maintain support back home.

Another good thing is that with immigration on a political hamster wheel, there’ll be time to shine a bright light on other issues important to the Latino community: education, jobs, health … Take note though, I’m not expecting action or forward movement on any of those issues, but I am hopeful that they’ll be given a good platform above or at least equal to immigration.

2016 though, will be a different story.

That’s when presidential politics will put enormous pressure on Washington politicos to act. That’s when Latino voters will matter in the minds of campaign strategists. You see, the difference between congressional politics and presidential politics is gerrymandering – the GOP can’t win in a national election where they can’t pick the voters. So come 2016 they’re going to be forced into what a recent Vox article described as a prisoner’s dilemma: “stay vague on immigration, or use it as an intra-party wedge?” As a group, throughout the primaries, the GOP presidential hopefuls can be vague on immigration, stoking the fires of fear. But as individuals, they’ll have to stake a position and hope no one remembers what they said.

Until then, though, the 2015 congressional immigration rhetoric will be loud, antagonistic even, maybe cringe worthy – but that’s all it’ll be.

[Photo courtesy of Speaker John Boehner/Flickr]

 

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