Follow the polls at your own peril
By Victor Landa, NewsTaco (2.5 minute read)
If the presidential election were a real horse race the ponies would be running along the back stretch right about now. There’s still plenty of track ahead of them and the caller’s going to be narrating every stride and position until it’s over. So let’s not get carried away because this week’s polls have one candidate gaining on another.
When the results of the latest weekly NBC News/Survey Monkey poll were published yesterday the best show wasn’t on the campaign trail, it was along the sidelines, with the commentator’s, observers, especially on social media. You’d think they declared a winner already.
[pullquote]it’s a non-probability survey of people who self-selected to participate and where 1,381 of the 14,797 people polled self-identified as Latino.[/pullquote]The poll results showed a 32 percent favorability among Latinos for Donald Trump . . .
. . . as if the earth opened up and swallowed all logic and decency.
The number was tucked under the usual presidential horse race positioning: “Hispanics support Clinton over Trump by 29 points (61 percent to 32 percent).” That one line set the Latino corner of the interwebs afire.
I understand why. There’s a bit of cognitive dissonance going on in the media. Let’s take the venerable NBC News as an example. Last week NBC published a story about the protests outside a Trump rally in Albuquerque, New Mexico, that “turned violent.” There’s plenty and palpable anger towards Trump in the Latino community, and NBC had done a good job of reporting on it.
Then they publish the results of a survey that say more Latinos are taking a liking to Trump. Reporters will say they’re just reporting the facts, but they’re not, really. Here’s an important thing they leave out of their reporting: the poll represents the opinion of voters in the last week of May, a month and a half before the party conventions; it’s a non-probability survey of people who self-selected to participate and where 1,381 of the 14,797 people polled self-identified as Latino.
[pullquote]If you were at the race track, would you bet on that?[/pullquote]It’s a contrived snapshot, so chill.
The “Latino” percentage was culled from people who say they are Latino from among a larger universe of people who chose to answer a survey. If you were at the race track, would you bet on that?
Keep in mind, reporters report the facts but they also love to report on the presidency, and they obsess over the horse-race. And remember, it’s a weekly poll, so there will be another one very soon – they crank them out quickly then wrap them around coverage for at least one news cycle.
Trump has gotten a bump in the polls after he clinched his party’s nomination. The Democratic nominee, whoever that turns out to be, will get a similar bump when his/her time comes. Once the party conventions are done the candidates will be coming down the home stretch and polls will take on a higer level of importance. Until then, enjoy the race, listen to the call, but don’t get carried away.
[Photo by DonkeyHotey/Flickr]
