NewsTaco

By Raul A. Reyes, Other Words

Well, that didn’t take long. Just three days after a diverse coalition of voters re-elected President Barack Obama, the Supreme Court announced that it’s going to review the Voting Rights Act. The justices will look at Section 5 of the landmark legislation, which requires states with a history of racial discrimination to get pre-approval from the federal government before they change their voting laws. Most of the affected states are in the South.

In Shelby County v. Holder, the Court will consider whether Section 5 is unconstitutional. Shelby County, Alabama says it is, and that the preclearance requirement is unnecessary and unfair.

Shelby County is wrong on all counts. The bigger problem is that the Supreme Court seems poised to meddle in public policy, which is bad for its reputation and for our democracy.

Shelby County says that Section 5 is outdated because the political climate in the South has improved. But voter suppression continues to be an issue throughout the South. Since 2010, eight southern states have passed restrictive voting laws. These measures make it harder for minority and low-income voters to cast their ballots. That gets at the heart of why Section 5 is still vital: to guarantee that voters are not denied access to the polls.

Opponents of Section 5 say that it is unfair. They say it’s a burden for southern states to have to seek federal review whenever they change their election laws. Yet history can’t be erased. These states earned the preclearance requirement with their legacy of racial discrimination. And if their proposed changes to election laws don’t discriminate against minority voters, then the federal pre-approval requirement should not be a burden at all.

Congress has been clear that it supports the entire Voting Rights Act. Though Section 5 was originally supposed to last five years, our lawmakers have renewed it four times. In 2006, Congress renewed it for 25 years after 22 hearings and 15,000 pages of evidence established persistent racial discrimination in the South.

The Fifteenth Amendment assigns Congress — not the Supreme Court — the responsibility of ensuring that no citizens are denied their right to vote. Section 5 has faced at least two constitutional challenges in the past, and survived both of them. Two lower courts have already ruled against Shelby County. Why then, is the Supreme Court hearing this case?

Unfortunately, it appears as though the Court may be leaning towards misguided judicial activism. Chief Justice John Roberts has indicated that he may find Section 5 anachronistic. “Things have changed in the South,” he wrote in a 2009 opinion that touched on a similar issue.

However, “things” haven’t changed that much. The Constitution, Congress, and recent events support upholding Section 5. It’s an important barrier against voter suppression, and the court risks damaging its reputation as an impartial arbiter of justice if it tinkers with the act.

And it’s not just a problem in the South. Pennsylvania’s House Majority Leader Mike Turzai, a Republican, bragged earlier this year that the state’s new voter ID law “is gonna allow Governor Romney to win the state of Pennsylvania.”

A judge later ruled that Pennsylvania couldn’t enforce its new voter ID law in 2012 but he didn’t stop the state from running ads suggesting that it would be in effect anyway. Though Mitt Romney ultimately lost Pennsylvania, it’s worrisome that the Supreme Court might soon wade into this legislative territory. The civil rights of millions of minority voters are at stake, as well as the integrity of our electoral process. The Court should leave Section 5 intact.

This article was first published in Other Words.

By Tony Castro, Voxxi

Rep. Xavier Becerra, the fifth-ranking Democrat in the House, has announced that his wants to be chairman of the House Democratic Caucus.

The California Democrat has sent a formal letter to colleagues, saying he wants to move up in the party machinery in Congress and campaigning on his important relationships.

“It’s developing the friendships that let you get to the point where you can actually ask for a vote,” he said in his letter.

Becerra is believed to have the inside track to the position as House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi is one of his biggest supporters. He is also helped by the fact that a quarter of the freshman Democratic class entering Congress comes from California.

“The more Californians there are,” says Becerra, “the greater opportunity I have to try to have them be with me, supportive of me.”

Democrats vote on leadership after the Thanksgiving break.

So far, Becerra is the only one running for the position, which opened up because Connecticut Congressman John Larson was termed out of leadership.

Rep. Xavier Becerra shows he could move up in leadership

As the fifth most powerful among Democrats in the House, Becerra established himself as one of the most sought after political figures this fall.

“I’ve been to Connecticut. I’ve been to Ohio. I’ve been to Michigan. I’ve been to Illinois,” says Becerra who has been to those states not only as President Barack Obama’s surrogate but also to campaign for fellow Democrats.

“Xavier is tremendous on the campaign trail because he doesn’t come across as a slick, professional politician,” says political consultant William Orozco. “People trust him. Voters listen to him. He has all those Middle American values that are invaluable in a campaign.”

Becerra, 53, has also emerged as someone who could move up the leadership ladder in the coming years. He is now a member of the new budget-cutting “super committee”— Congress’s 12-member joint deficit-reduction panel.

It is a position that has been made all that more important in light of the economic recession and the focus of the presidential campaign on reducing the national deficit.

That work is coming to a deadline shortly after the election and as the vice chairman of the House Democratic caucus, Becerra must balance that role with being a member of the supercommittee, the CHC and the Congressional Progressive Caucus.

“I don’t care what the final package looks like— it’s going to be a tough vote,” Becerra says of the supercommittee challenge. “There are no easy votes here, and so it’s going to be something that. . . the pain will be obvious, and it’s more a matter of (whether) we can show we spread the pain, so we can spread the gain as well.”

This article was first published in Voxxi.

[Photo by Knight Foundation]

By Raisa Camargo, Voxxi

Election Day is officially a week old, but that hasn’t stopped the mainstream media from speculating whether Hillary Clinton should run in 2016.

The Clintons still hold plenty of sway with Latino voters some analysts would venture to indicate. Bill Clinton also did events or calls for 52  down-ballot candidates this cycle, many of whom won on Tuesday, according to Politico.

In terms of the Latino vote, the Clintons have also established their relationship with the Latino community for years. Juan Andrade, president of the U.S. Hispanic Leadership Institute, was quick to note Hillary’s potential appeal to the Latino community.

“If she jumps in the race in 2016, she’ll be the favorite among Latino voters,” said Andrade. “The Clintons they go back to 1972 in the Latino community. No one goes back that far in the Latino community.”

Hillary held the Hispanic edge over Obama

It was Hillary who held the edge over Latino voters during the Democratic primaries in 2008. Obama was heavily criticized at the time for his lack of strategy on appealing to the Latino community.

“During the primaries, Hillary Clinton was really the Latino candidate for president,” said Angelo Falcon, president of the National Institute for Latino Policy. “If you look at the news media exit polls, you’ll notice that the only other candidate for president who got a higher percentage than the 71 percent that supposedly Latinos gave to Obama was Bill Clinton.”

In 1996, Falcon cited that Bill Clinton received an estimated 72 percent of the Latino vote.

A previous poll showed Hillary ahead at the time among Latinos in five top Hispanic states. Some of the Democratic Hispanic candidates were also quick to back Clinton. But Clinton’s list of Latino endorsements was longer, according to news reports. Falcon added that loyalty among Latino party elected officials ran deeper for Hillary because Obama was unknown at the time.

“Hillary and Bill Clinton not only know where they (Hispanics) live, they’ve been to their houses already,” said Andrade.

Hillary Clinton 2016, too early bid

Still, analysts are careful to signal Hillary’s shot considering it’s too early to tell whether she will even run. She decided to sit out the second term under the Obama administration and that caused some to question whether it’s a long term break.

There is also more expectation on the Democratic Party to perform on immigration reform. That could alter the political environment for possible presidential Democratic contenders in 2016. Much of that also depends on the stance the Republican Party will take in the next four years.

“There are too many things that are unanswered at this point,” said Falcon.

Already two Democratic Senators are pushing for a bipartisan consensus on immigration reform. And with the key swing states where Latinos grew could draw plenty of contention in the next election cycle, the need for the Latino vote in 2016 will be even more crucial. Liz Lopez, a Democratic strategist and Counsel in the Washington, D.C. office of Barnes & Thornburg LLP, said she “wishes” Hillary would throw her support behind the presidential bid in 2016.

“She was already a very strong candidate, but now we would have a woman that has served as a Senator, has served as a cabinet member, has been in the White House,” Lopez said. “It’s a very unique set of skills she will be bringing to the presidency.”

Yet, instead of focusing on the Republicans, Falcon said the real pressure should be placed on the Democratic Party.

“If the Democrats don’t come through on immigration reform—we’re going to be back to square one down the road no matter what happens November 6,” said Falcon. ”The Latino community has been one of the most loyal segments of the Democratic Party and I think it’s about time we cash in on that and make them pay up after all these years.”

This article was first published in Voxxi.

Raisa Camargo is a staff writer at Voxxi.

[Photo by DonkeyHotey]

By Tony Castro, Voxxi

Who is newly elected California Congresswoman Gloria Negrete McLeod and why is New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg sticking his nose into a political race on the other side of the country?

Bloomberg’s Super PAC appears to have been the determining factor in Negrete McLeod’s upset of seven-term incumbent Rep. Joe Baca in the 35th Congressional District in a battle of Democrats in the San Bernardino area.

Negrete McLeod’s campaign apparently got more than $3 million pumped into the race by Bloomberg’s USA Super PAC, evidently because Bloomberg was unhappy with Baca’s record on gun control laws.

In its mission statement, Bloomberg’s PAC says its purpose is to focus on candidates who are tough on gun control and education policy.

Bloomberg’s involvement in the race has begun questions from California media

“The cash infusion paid for a network television advertising campaign supporting Negrete McLeod and opposing Baca,” wrote Riverside Press-Enterprise blogger Ben Goad, who wondered why Bloomberg was “directing such a large some to a distant congressional race while his constituents were reeling from the effects of Hurricane Sandy.”

“It’s quite possible that the mayor of New York determined the outcome in this race, and separated Joe Baca from his congressional seat,” the Los Angeles Daily News said in an unsigned opinion story Wednesday.

On Wednesday, too, Bloomberg’s Super PAC took credit for Negrete McLeod’s victory as one of 19 victories and seven losses among the candidates and causes it backed.

In Negrete McLeod’s campaign, the Bloomberg PAC claimed victory against the National Rifle Association lobby with her election. Before the Bloomberg PAC’s involvement, a spokesperson said, McLeod had low name-recognition and was polling at 30 percent.

Baca apparently became a target of the Bloomberg PAC because of his B-plus rating by the NRA and consistent pro-gun rights voting record. Since 1999, when Baca first ran for Congress, the NRA has named him as one of its “Defenders of Freedom.”

In contrast, the NRA has historically given an “F” rating to almost all other California Democrats in Congress.

“There has never really been an effective counterweight to the NRA—at least in terms of dollars, cents and the ability to get a message out,” said Stefan Friedman, a spokesman for Bloomberg’s new super PAC, Independence USA.

“I think the mayor’s been clear this is an issue he cares very passionately about and this could very well be a curtain-raiser to the future.”

One of the ads Bloomberg’s Super PAC bought read, “Congressman Baca voted to allow sex offenders and suspected terrorist to bring concealed weapons into California.”

In the final days, Baca fired back

“Doesn’t Mayor Michael Bloomberg have more important things to worry about than a congressional district in California?” Baca said at a news conference.

“I think all of this money would better be spent on hurricane victims …This is a disgusting last minute attempt to deceive the voter as we near the elections.”

It is significant that before the Bloomberg entry into the campaign Negrete McLeod—a veteran member of the State Senate—was a major underdog in the race and had raised barely more than $200,000 in contributions, roughly a third of Baca’s campaign war chest.

Baca also had the lion’s share of major endorsements, including those of the state and national Democratic parties and even President Barack Obama.

In the June primary, Baca led with 45 percent of the vote compared to 36 percent for Gloria Negrete McLeod, but the two Democrats were thrown into a fall showdown by California’s new top-two primary system allowing candidates from the same party to compete in general elections.

But the 35^th Congressional District was a newly drawn political entity that may have benefitted Negrete McLeod, since it included more than 80 percent of her senate district. In contrast, the redrawn congressional district contained only about 58 percent of Baca’s former district.

“New district, new representation, new voice,” Negrete McLeod said. “I feel I am more community oriented, more cognizant of local issues.”

This article was first published in Voxxi.

Los Angeles-based writer Tony Castro is the author of the critically-acclaimed “Chicano Power: The Emergence of Mexican America” and the best-selling “Mickey Mantle: America’s Prodigal Son.”

[Photo courtesy sd32.senate.ca.gov]

By Brenda Rincon, New America Media / Coachella Unincorporated

Editor’s Note: As of late Wednesday night, the official count had Democrat Raul Ruiz leading Republican incumbent Mary Bono Mack in California’s 36th Congressional District by 2.8 percent, with 100 percent of precincts reporting. With some absentee ballots still to be counted, Bono Mack had not yet conceded the race. An announcement of the final tally is expected to come by Thursday evening.

COACHELLA, Calif. – It is the morning after the election, but no one is talking about the President in this Riverside County town.
The only candidate people are talking about here is Raul Ruiz, the 40-year-old doctor, Democrat, and son of farm workers from Coachella who on Wednesday pulled ahead of longtime Republican incumbent Mary Bono Mack by about 4,000 votes in the race for California’s 36th congressional district.

“People are talking more about Ruiz than Obama,” said Loretta Cota, a teacher from Coachella. “There was a lot more interest this election because everyone feels a connection to Raul because he grew up here. He wants to serve everyone — farmworkers, immigrants, first-generation college educated students.”

“He’s one of us”

By now, Ruiz’s local-boy-does-good story is known throughout the Eastern Coachella Valley and beyond. He is the son of farm workers who knocked on doors and asked businesses in his hometown of Coachella for financial support for college, promising them that one day he would return and give back to the community that gave so much to him. He went on to graduate from the University of California at Los Angeles and obtain three graduate degrees from Harvard University, including the Doctor of Medicine degree that enables him to work as an emergency room doctor at Eisenhower Medical Center.

“He understands suffering, and the need for a better life, prosperity, to live in a place where you are respected, supported, and helped,” says Nancy Gonzalez, a farm worker from neighboring Indio, in Spanish.

“He just genuinely cares about our valley,” adds Karla Cardenas, a campaign volunteer who graduated from Coachella Valley High School in 1990 with Ruiz. “He’s one of us, he grew up with us. I went to school with him. He was an example then, and he is an example now for our kids. We know his mom, we know that lady is going to hold him accountable to everything he says and promises that he will do for us.”

A Hard Fought Campaign

Residents of Coachella and other east valley towns became overwhelmingly invested during the cutthroat battle for the 36th congressional district – a rural desert swath of Riverside County that, west to east, stretches from the town of Hemet to Blythe — the moment Ruiz announced he was running against Bono Mack a little over a year ago. At the time, it seemed few outside Coachella were aware of his candidacy. But his hometown community mobilized behind him quickly, creating enough momentum that the Bono Mack camp took notice when pundits declared the race a toss-up in the weeks leading up to election day.

Political contributions to both sides soon poured in, and the race became a polarized, attack ad-heavy contest pitting the Republican incumbent with her support base in Palm Springs and the west valley, against the upstart son of farm workers from the east valley.

Combined, Ruiz and Bono Mack received over $3.2 million – nearly evenly split — from outside sources to fund their campaigns, according to the Sunlight Foundation.

Now, after a year of collective hard work and with the polls closed, reality is beginning to sink in for Ruiz’s supporters as the final absentee ballots are tallied: The Coachella Valley, if Ruiz’s lead holds as expected, will be represented in Congress by one of its own.

“It’s a feeling of overall excitement to finally have representation from someone who cares about the Coachella Valley,” said Cardenas. “We want to run outside and scream. I am so excited I can’t contain myself.”

A Voice for the East Valley

Representation, say Ruiz’s hometown supporters, is something they haven’t had during Bono Mack’s 14 years in office.

“Ruiz’s victory will mean putting a face to the person and knowing that you can always call him to the table and have meaningful conversations that will lead to progress, especially out in the east valley,” said Trinidad Arredondo, a local community worker. “In terms of (improving) housing, infrastructure, we need to have a member of Congress at the table.”

This is especially important for the unincorporated communities just outside of Coachella. They are home to many farm worker families, and others who make a living working low-paying service jobs in the hospitality industry that supports the economy of Palm Springs and surrounding resort towns on the west side. In stark contrast to the west side, the predominantly Latino unincorporated communities of the eastern Coachella Valley have long been plagued by poverty, environmental woes, shoddy infrastructure, illegal trailer parks, and the problematic – and foul smelling — Salton Sea.

“This mean proper representation for the Eastern Coachella Valley,” said Carmen Palomar, who lives in the unincorporated community of Mecca. “We have a big population of Latinos, and we would like to see one of our own be there, actually making decisions that would be appropriate to our people.”

Palomar’s efforts on behalf of the Ruiz campaign extended to working on voter registration drives.

“I’ve always been involved with my community, but with this campaign I wanted to do my due diligence to make sure this becomes a blue district,” she said.

Red to Blue

The 36th Congressional District has a population of just over 700,000 and had been regarded as a red district based on voter registration numbers – at the time of redistricting in 2011, 41.4 percent of all registered voters there were Republican, compared to just 39 percent Democrat and 15.2 percent who declined to state.

But the district is also an example of a wider demographic shift over the last decade that was captured by the 2010 Census and shows that California, and it’s rural inland valleys, are becoming increasingly Latino. While Latinos only made up 27.5 percent of registered voters in the 36th District as of 2011, they represented 46.6 percent of the total population and could soon overtake Whites (51.9 percent) as the majority ethnic group there, if population trends continue.

It’s not a stretch to say that the grassroots support ignited by Ruiz within the Latino community, coupled with new-voter registrations spurred by his campaign, could have given Ruiz the edge he needed to eek out a narrow victory against the much better-known Bono Mack.

High Expectations

The personal connection that community members feel they have with Ruiz has led to growing expectations, even during the short number of hours that have passed since he took the lead.

“(A victory) would mean having someone who really cares for us in Congress, who is going to get the Coachella Valley up to par, who will visit the East Coachella Valley to start off with,” says Cardenas. “He is genuine. I know he will do everything in his power to help. He is not going to go be a Washington insider.”

Cardenas acknowledges that Ruiz will have a lot on his plate, but says, “He’s a smart guy. I have no doubt he will do an excellent job. He has done so much as a physician, I can imagine what he will do for us in Congress.”

Late on election night – at the time he was trailing by about 500 votes — Ruiz took the stage before his supporters at the Riverside County Democratic Party election night event.

“You are the reason that we have a chance of winning; you are the reason a nation is watching us to see the final results,” he told the diverse crowd in attendance.

“And tonight we wait, but tomorrow, no matter what the results, the hard work begins. Tomorrow, we begin anew. Committed to creating jobs, protecting secure retirements for our seniors, and building a promising future for our youth.”

For the residents of the Eastern Coachella Valley, tomorrow can’t come soon enough.

This article was first published in New America Media.

[Photo by B Rincon/New America Media]

By Aaron Leaf, Feet In 2 Worlds

In a sign of the, “increasing power and significant potential within immigrant communities,” some 80 Congressional candidates from immigrant communities are on Nov. 6th ballots. They include Ted Cruz, a Republican who is expected to be the first Latino U.S. Senator from Texas andGrace Meng, a Democratic Assemblywoman from Queens, NY favored to become the first Asian American to represent New York in Congress.

Their stories and many others are highlighted in a report by the New American Leaders Project, a group that trains immigrants to be political candidates.  The report hails what it calls “an impressive array of ethnic and partisan diversity across 19 states.”

The report, From the Community to the Capitol: Immigrants Flex Political Muscle in 2012 Congressional Races, looks at changing demographics and new approaches by both parties to attract immigrant voters. It also describes the power of redistricting to increase or exclude new minority representation.

When congressional seats were redrawn in 2010 some states gained seats in Congress due to an “increase in Hispanic or Asian American populations.” But at the same time,  some minority districts were divided, lowering the chances for minority candidates.

In an interview with Fi2W, New American Leaders founding director Sayu Bhojwani highlighted the disparity between immigrant and minority populations and their level of representation in Congress. For example, there are 26 Latinos in Congress, but if it the body were to reflect the proportion of Latinos in the population the number would be 86.

Bhojwani, a former New York City Commissioner of Immigrant Affairs, says her goal with the report is to “increase the discourse around contributions of immigrants to our country,” and fight the “immigrant-victim narrative and the idea that immigrants depend on government support.”

The report takes a fairly broad view of who is an immigrant candidate.   Bhojwani looked at both foreign-born and first-generation immigrants and their offspring, even including some third generation immigrant politicians such as the Castro brothers in Texas for whom immigrant identity is important.

“Immigrant friendly policy is good for large sections of the population,” she says. “Improving community involvement in the civic process is good for everyone.”

Not all immigrant candidates are running in districts with large immigrant populations. Bhojwani points to Republican candidate Mia Love from Utah who, if elected, would become the first Haitian American and the first black Republican woman in Congress. Similarly, Republican governors Bobby Jindal of Lousiana and Nikki Hayley of South Carolina are both succesful politicians of South Asian descent in states that don’t have large South Asian populations. They relate to voters, says Bhojwani, on the strength of their policies.

The New American Leaders Project, provides political training for immigrant community leaders. Since they started a year and half ago they’ve trained 182 African, Asian, Caribbean, and Latino immigrants in New York, California, Washington, Arizona and Illinois, states they’ve identified as having the demographics and infrastructure to potentially elect immigrant candidates to local and statewide posts. Approximately 10 percent of their trainees have run for office and several more are on the ballot this year and in 2013. In New York these include Abe George, the son of Indian immigrant parents who is running for Brooklyn DA and City Council candidate Jacques Leandre, a Haitian American from Queens.

Bhojwani wants her trainees to use their immigrant experiences in their campaigns to reach out to other communities, both immigrants and non-immigrants. She points to the use of immigrant narratives in both party’s national conventions this year as an indication that being an immigrant, often seen as a political negative can actually add to a candidate’s campaign.

“It’s not that immigrants have decided one party or another,” says Bhojwani. “Both parties can benefit by cultivating immigrant leadership.”

If Latino candidates win their races this year, says the report, there will be as many as 34 Hispanic representatives in Congress. The report predicts that the number of Asian Americans in Congress is likely to drop from 10 to 8. For Asians to be proportionately represented the report says there should be 31 Asian members of Congress.

This article was fiorst published in Feet In 2 Worlds.

Fi2W is supported by the New York Community Trust and the John S. and James L. Knight Foundation with additional support from the Ralph E. Odgen Foundation and the Sirus Fund. 

Aaron Leaf is a freelance writer and editor who has reported on human rights issues from Zambia, Liberia, Canada and Peru. He is a graduate of Ryerson University and the former editor of Ricepaper, a journal of Asian Canadian arts and culture.

[Photo by DonkeyHotey]

By Casey Klofstad, Latino Decisions

With the election less than two weeks away there has been a great deal of speculation about the Latino community’s support for President Obama, particularly in Florida. Most recently, an Interactive Voice Response survey, or “robo-poll,” conducted on October 10-11 by Florida International University showed that 50.7% of Latinos in Florida who identified themselves as likely voters would vote for President Obama, with 44.2% supporting Governor Romney. With a margin of error of 3.65%, this puts the race at dead even in Florida.

These figures are probably not accurate for two reasons (hat-tip to Marc Caputo of the Miami Herald). One is that the FIU poll did not include cell phones. There is a growing consensus that omitting cell phones biases polling results in favor of the Republican Party. Latino Decisions surveys include cell phone only households in their samples.

Another issue is that the FIU figures do not accurately account for the political attitudes of Cuban Americans. For a variety of reasons, antipathy for leftist politics arguably at the top of the list, Cuban Americans are unique among Latinos because they are generally supportive of the Republican Party. For example, as seen in Figure 1, data collected by Latino Decisions from registered Latino voters in Florida on September 22-28 show that Cuban Americans are much more likely to identify as Republicans than Puerto Ricans, the second largest (and growing) group of Latinos in Florida. The margin of error in this poll was 4.9%. Both landline and cell phones were called. This same poll shows that 39% of Cuban Americans intend to vote for Obama (50% for Romney), compared to 71% of all other Latinos in the poll (22% for Romney). The issue here is that the FIU results were not “weighted” to account for the possibility that Cuban Americans—i.e., votes for Romney—were overrepresented in the poll relative to their actual share of Florida’s Latino electorate. The Latino Decisions data discussed above were corrected in this manner.

The upshot of all of this is that any softening of Latino support for Obama in Florida is, at the very least, overestimated. If we compare the results of the September Latino Decisions poll to one they conducted in June, support for President Obama among Latinos in Florida has been solid over the summer (Figure 2). Note that with a 4.9% margin of error the shifts in the data over time are not statistically significant, though perhaps indicative of a weak trend of increased support for the President.

Part of why Obama is popular among Florida’s Latino electorate, Cuban Americans aside, is the issue of immigration. One might assume that this issue is not as salient among Florida’s Latinos because the state is relatively isolated from the heated immigration debate in the Southwestern United States. As a corollary, data from theSeptember Latino Decisions poll show that Latinos in Florida are less likely to know an undocumented immigrant than Latinos in Nevada, another state they polled at the same time (Figure 3). This all said, when you directly ask how important immigration is to their vote, Latinos in Florida indicate that it is very important, equally among those who do and do not know an undocumented immigrant given the margin of error (Figure 4).

How will these attitudes on immigration policy play out in the polls? Data from Latino Decisions’ September poll show that respondents in Florida are much more enthused by Obama’s recent approach to immigration than Romney’s (Figure 5). The President’s shift in policy to stop deportation of undocumented immigrant youth seems to have yielded electoral dividends among Latinos in Florida, despite the fact that deportation rates (though not the raw total of deportees at this point in time) have been higher during his administration compared to George W. Bush’s.

While Latinos in Florida support Obama, this support is meaningless if the community does not turn out to vote. One issue here is the voter registration roll “purge” of suspected non-citizens from the voting rolls currently going on in Florida. This process has overwhelmingly targeted Democrats and Latinos. Before the September Latino Decisions data were collected, I hypothesized that this might create concern among Latinos in Florida, perhaps to the point of suppressing turnout. The poll asked respondents whether they were concerned that legal voters would be purged from Florida’s registration rolls. Figure 6 shows that concern is high among the Latino community. This fear aside, however, Figure 7 shows that enthusiasm to vote is very high among Latino registered voters. Figure 8 shows that enthusiasm is even higher today than it was in the historic 2008 election (I didn’t think this could be the case, so I checked these numbers too many times than I can count).

All told, barring any wild change in the political landscape, the President will win the majority of Latino votes in the State of Florida and turnout should be high. What remains to be seen is whether this will be enough to secure him Florida’s 29 electoral votes.

The commentary of this article reflects the views of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Latino Decisions. Latino Decisions and Pacific Market Research, LLC make no representations about the accuracy of the content of the article.

This article was first published in Latino Decisions.

Casey A. Klofstad is an associate professor of political science at the University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL. He has a forthcoming article co-authored with Benjamin G. Bishin inPolitical Research Quarterly entitled, “The Political Incorporation of Cuban Americans: Why Won’t Little Havana Turn Blue?”. His book, Civic Talk: Peers Politics and the Future of Democracy , is now available in paperback. You can follow him on Twitter at @klofstad, and on Facebook at www.facebook.com/klofstad

[Photo By Mykl Roventine]

By Latino Decisions

The impreMedia-Latino Decisions tracking poll latest results reveal a high level of interest and engagement by Latino voters in the upcoming congressional and presidential elections. [ Full wave 9 results here ]

More than three-fourths of all respondents said they have talked with friends or family members about candidates, issues or other election topics in the last few months and 45% have actively tried to persuade friends or family on their election decision. According to the 2008 American National Election study, 45% of all voters said they tried to influence how others voters, suggesting on this measure Latinos are as engaged in 2012 as all voters were in 2008.  When asked if they had tried to help people register or volunteered for any campaign or voter outreach effort 14% of all Latino voters said yes.  In 2008 the ANES found 4% of all voters had worked on a campaign, 13% gave money to a campaign, and 9% attended a political meeting.

Those who said they were very enthusiastic about voting in the upcoming elections climbed from 51% last week to 56% this.

“This week’s survey indicates that Latino voters are one of the most highly engaged groups in the election,” said Monica Lozano, CEO of impreMedia. “This has implications for both candidates, but is an especially positive force for President Obama who is still highly favored by Latinos.”

Among Latinos, those age 45-65 years old reported the highest level of electoral engagement on every dimension.   For example, within this age group 89% are certain to vote, and 68% say they are very enthusiastic. 59% say they have tried to persuade people on political issues, and 28% have volunteered for a campaign or worked on voter registration.

Presidential Race Tracker

After a slight decline in last week’s poll, Obama’s support is back up near his previous high 3 weeks ago. When asked who they would vote for if the election were held today, a combined 71% of respondents were certain or likely to vote for Obama, compared to 67% last week and 72% two weeks ago. A combined 20% were certain or likely to vote for Romney, compared to 23% last week and 20% two weeks ago.

One of the most interesting electoral stories over the last two weeks may be that while the overall national polls show Romney making noticeable gains on Obama, among the Latino electorate Romney gained only 3 points during his rise, but lost those 3 points back this week and stands at 20%.  And a very important footnote to the national polls – if they are not accurately polling and counting Latino voters which will comprise 10% of all voters, they may be overstating Romney’s numbers by 2 or 3 points.

“Obama may have lost some ground nationally,” said Monica Lozano, of impreMedia. “But our 9 weeks of polling indicate he has retained consistent support from Latino voters, and they are likely to be a decisive factor in his re-election effort.”

Methodology. This is the ninth release of an 11-week tracking poll of Latino registered voters. Each week impreMedia and Latino Decisions release a new rolling cross- section of 300 completed interviews with Latino registered voters across all 50 states. Interviews are conducted in English or Spanish, at the preference of the respondent, all conducted by bilingual interviewers at Latino Decisions calling center, Pacific Market Research. The survey averaged 10 minutes in length, and has an overall margin of error of 5.6% on results that approach a 50/50 distribution. All respondents confirm that they are Hispanic or Latino and currently registered to vote. The ninth week of the survey was fielded Oct 12-Oct 18, 2012. Download week 9 results

This article was first published in Latino Decisions.

[Photo by Mrs. Gemstone]

PRESS RELEASE

Catholics Strongly Favor Obama,  Evangelicals Divided

Rapidly Growing Latino Support for Same-Sex Marriage

Latinos are divided by religion in their preferences in the upcoming presidential election, according toa new Pew Research Center survey. Three-quarters (73%) of Latino Catholics and eight-in-ten (82%) religiously unaffiliated Latinos support President Barack Obama’s re-election. However, among Latino evangelical Protestants, who account for 16% of all Latino registered voters, just 50% prefer Obama, while 39% support his Republican challenger, Mitt Romney.

These same patterns are reflected in Latinos’ partisan affiliations. Eight-in-ten (81%) religiously unaffiliated Latino voters (who make up 15% of the Latino electorate) and seven-in-ten (71%) Latino Catholics (57% of the Latino electorate) are Democrats or lean toward the Democratic Party. Among Latino evangelical voters, identification with the Democratic Party is lower—- about half (52%) are Democrats or lean Democratic, while about a third (36%) are Republicans or lean toward the Republican Party.

As the presidential election approaches, many Hispanic churchgoers say they are hearing from their clergy about various political issues and, to a lesser extent, about candidates and elections. Roughly half (54%) of Hispanics who attend religious services at least once a month say they have heard their clergy speak out about abortion, while 43% have heard from the pulpit about immigration, and 38% say their clergy have spoken out about homosexuality. A smaller proportion, roughly three-in-ten (29%), report hearing from their clergy about candidates and elections.

The new survey also finds rapidly growing support for same-sex marriage among Latinos, mirroring growing support among the general public. Half (52%) of Latinos now favor allowing gay and lesbian couples to marry legally, while one-third (34%) are opposed. As recently as 2006, these figures were reversed (56% of Latinos opposed same-sex marriage, while 31% supported it). Latino evangelicals, however, remain strongly opposed to same-sex marriage (66% opposed vs. 25% in favor).

This report is jointly produced by two projects of the Pew Research Center, the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life and the Pew Hispanic Center.  It follows a Pew Hispanic Center report, released last week, about Latino voters in this year’s election. Both reports are based on a nationally representative bilingual telephone survey conducted Sept. 7-Oct. 4, 2012 (largely before the first presidential debate), among 1,765 Latino adults, including 903 registered voters. The Latino electorate today includes 23.7 million eligible voters—- an increase of more than 4 million since 2008. Overall, Latinos now account for 11% of the nation’s eligible electorate, up from 9.5% in 2008. In addition, Latinos make up at least 14% of all eligible voters in three battleground states this year—- Colorado, Florida and Nevada.

The report, “Latinos, Religion and Campaign 2012: Catholics Favor Obama, Evangelicals Divided,” is available here.

The Pew Hispanic Center, a project of the Pew Research Center, is a nonpartisan, non-advocacy research organization based in Washington, D.C. and is funded by The Pew Charitable Trusts.

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[Photo By Dougtone]

Wednesday October 17, 2012

Court to hear Brewer’s appeal in immigration case (AzCapitoltimes): Important because it’s happening today. But it’s not what you think. Arizona Governor Jan Brewer appealed a ruling by a Federal Judge that bans  people from blocking traffic when they seek or offer work as day laborers.

Mayor Villaraigosa wants city ID card for immigrants (Los Angeles Times): Good article that lays out the issue of providing ID’s for the undocumented of Los Angeles, with context and perspective. A solid backgound-er for discussion.

Villaraigosa’s illegal immigrant ID plan has critics, supporters (Los Angeles Times): This story kinda’ picks up where the one above leaves off. It lays-out the opposing arguments with a little more depth.

Thousands of Immigrants Get Deferrals (The Wall Street Journal): In case you were wondering – the latest totals of DREAMers who have applied for deferral. A caution, though, if you’re not a WSJ subscriber you’ll only get about a paragraph of the story. But the numbers are there.

The Latino Vote: Presidential candidates pursue splintered bloc (Las Vegas Review-Journal): Interesting approach to the ubiquitous political issue. The Writer, Xazmin Garza,  sets up her story in a few paragraphs then tells it in a series of small voter vignettes.

Oregon Latinos retaining Spanish language more than previous generations (Phys.org): Interesting read. Don’t know of Oregon is an outlier or if this is an indication of a trend. It used to be conventional wisdom that the language of origin was lost in three generations. This finding seems to buck that trend. It’s new, so it’s worth posting here.

Study: Middle-age Hispanics most likely to skip the vote (NBC Latino):Very interesting piece on who doesn’t vote and why…then again, I’m a bit obsessive about these things. At any rate, middle aged Latinos have a higher non-voting propensity because they’re more than likely working – sometimes more than one job – and it’s hard for them to make it to the polls, even in Texas where early voting is almost as long as a climactic season. This piece is filled with good, thought provoking, information.

Are Latinos Reshaping Catholicism in the United States? (ABC News/Univision): Fascinating stuff, with unexpected political implications and consequences. Latinos are the only group of US Catholic congregants that are increasing. While the percentage of Catholics within the Latnio community is dwindling.

Can Obama Win the Latino Protestant Vote? (Religion and Politics): Follow up to the article above; it’s protestant Latinos who are more prone to vote Republican, or swing their vote from one party to another. Talk about micro-targeting… Talk about wrong-headed GOP efforts to woo Catholic Latinos…

Here’s The Reason Mitt Romney Is Performing Exceptionally Well Among Latinos In A New Florida Poll (Business Insider): Granted, this is chocolate for the poll geeks, but it’s interesting fodder nonetheless. This article is all about methodology and sampling and why you should account for Cubans in Florida and how they’ll skew your poll results if you don’t. Perfect for 10 minutes and a cup of coffee.

By Maria Cardona, Latinovations

Up until the first presidential debate, Mitt Romney was the Frankenstein candidate. I don’t mean that derisively. I use it as a metaphor of what a caricature Mitt Romney had become in the eyes of many voters.

Conservatives didn’t trust him to be true to their principles. Liberals depicted him as a heartless corporate raider. His own advisers didn’t seem to know which Mitt to put before the public for the general election — Severely Conservative Mitt or Moderate Mitt? A little of both perhaps? As a result — he became FrankenMitt.

Luckily for Mitt Romney, his family had enough and, at least according to news reports, they intervened and urged Romney to just be himself. It seemed they advised him to shed all the disparate pieces the campaign had hobbled together to make him the candidate they thought would win the election — a candidate who, as it turned out, lacked a human dimension.

Mitt Romney finally proved he had the capability to be perceived as human and likable. While he certainly obfuscated about his own economic policies that he championed for the last two years (President Obama will bring this up at the next debate to be sure), the perception that he might be a viable alternative to the sitting president did wonders to his image. Substance and truth aside, he was a different man than what America had seen on the campaign trail. He demonstrated he can be comfortable in his own skin. He needs to do that again.

In addition, Romney can continue to add to his momentum if he does four things: 1) Speaks credibly to women and to Latinos, 2) Gives details about the future under a Romney/Ryan administration, 3) Takes care with the format, and 4) Apologizes for the 47% remark.

To women, he needs to say they do not need to fear a Severely Conservative Mitt who would proactively take away their right to choose, and who would put them at a disadvantage on health care issues — an unlikely and difficult task given his conservative base would explode and he has already promised to repeal Obamacare.

To Latinos, he needs to talk about immigration and what he would do with the 11 million undocumented immigrants in the country, now that he has said he would not round them up and have them deported (though self-deportation still seems to be an option). And what about the DREAM Act? These issues are likely to come up and are big challenges for the governor, because he faces a daunting lack of support among Latinos that could very well keep him from winning in November.

Romney also needs to fill in many blanks about specific plans for his presidency. My guess is moderator Candy Crowley will press both candidates to be more detailed about what the next four years will look like under their leadership. Romney’s tax plan has been particularly challenged by many independent analysts as have the studies his campaign has cited as supporting his plan.

Romney needs to be careful with the format. The town hall format of the upcoming debate can lead to many unscripted moments. These are not the governor’s forte; in fact they have brought him many moments of heartburn during the campaign. He needs to stay loose, and continue to be himself. Voters do not like and do not trust a candidate who doesn’t know who he is or worse, who is perceived as saying anything in order to get elected. That is why FrankenMitt was not sealing the deal.

My last piece of advice for the governor is this: Voters want to believe in you as a candidate. But more than that, they want to believe that you believe in them. The one comment that has really hurt Romney more than any other in this campaign was when he expressed disdain for 47% of the population.

Unfortunately for the Obama campaign, the president did not take full advantage of that in the first debate. The president will not make that mistake again. Romney has already said the comment was wrong — but he never humbly apologized to the American people for it. He should do so. And mean it. And that will be his biggest challenge of the night.

Ana Navarro’s advice for President Obama:

Giving President Obama advice on what to do in the second debate can be encapsulated in one word, “better.” To do better than in the first debate, almost all he has to do is walk on stage.

President Obama has nowhere to go but up. He has to show up, speak up, cheer up and look up, or he’s going to have to pack up.
President Obama can’t just vote “present.” He needs to actually debate. A debate is a discussion on a topic, in which opposing arguments are put forward.

In the first go-around, Obama never put anything forward. Worse yet, he didn’t refute, challenge or engage. This is the second of three debates, but Obama’s last best chance to turn this around.

We are at a fork in the road in this campaign. Another bad performance and Obama goes downhill and probably on to defeat. Through a good performance, he gets a chance to continue climbing up the mountain.

Obama needs to show he really wants to continue being president and will put heart and soul into fighting for the job. He can’t appear aloof and bored. He should remember there is a split screen that shows him at all times.

He needs to appear patient, interested, assertive and gracious. This next debate is a town hall format. Average Americans ask the questions.

Call the questioners by their name when answering. Make it personal. Be charming.

If all that fails, put on a space suit, drink a gallon of Red Bull and free fall 3 feet off the stage.

This article was first published in Latinovations.

Maria Cardona is a seasoned Democratic strategist, public affairs and communications professional with more than 18 years experience in the political, government, public relations, campaign, community and coalition building arenas.  She currently is a Principal at the Dewey Square Group (DSG)

[Photo by DonkeyHotey]

By Latino Decicions

According to the Real Clear Politics average of polls in Virginia, Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney 48.4 to 47.6, a gap of less than 1%.  In the race for U.S. Senate the most recent poll gives Tim Kaine a 48 to 47 lead over George Allen.  With two critical elections both separated by just 1 percent Latino voters may prove decisive in both the Presidential and Senate contests in the Old Dominion State. From 2000 – 2010 the number of Latino eligible voters grew by 76% in Virginia, outpacing all other groups in the electorate.

October 15, at a live streamed panel held at George Mason University national political analysts, advocates, and community leaders from Virginia discussed how Latino voters and the immigration issue will shape the presidential and Senate races in this state and beyond. Michael McDonald, a national expert on voter participation, and Professor of Government and Politics at GMU, teamed with Latino Decisions and America’s Voice to release fresh polling of Latino voters in Virginia. [Full Virginia Poll Results Here]

The poll found 66% of Virginia Latinos plan to vote for Obama compared to 22% for Romney.  In the Senate race, 64% plan to vote for Kaine and 24% for Allen. In Virginia and at the national level, Latino and new citizen voters are changing politics. With immigration at the top of the list of issues these voters want addressed, it’s no surprise that Republican candidates who have embraced hardline positions – including Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney and Senate nominee George Allen — are faring poorly with Virginia Latinos. By contrast, the embrace of immigrants and immigration reform by both President Barack Obama and Senate candidate Tim Kaine have played a key role in Latino support for Democrats in presidential, Senate and House races.

Professor Michael McDonald, Associate Professor at George Mason University, said: “Immigration is a personal issue that affects Latinos’ attitudes toward candidates even if they don’t explicitly name immigration as one of the most important issues facing the country. The new poll shows the importance of the new deferred action policy to Latino voters in Virginia–and especially undecided voters. With undecided voters expressing more enthusiasm for Obama after hearing about his deferred action policy and less enthusiasm for Romney after hearing about his plans to halt the program upon taking office, it’s clear that opposing this policy is a net negative for candidates who want to appeal to the Latino vote.”

Matt Barreto, principal at Latino Decisions and an assistant professor at the University of Washington, said: “President Obama’s decision in June to grant deferred action to DREAMers marked a ‘turning point’ among Latino voters around the country, making them significantly more enthusiastic about voting in November—and national polling results understate the level of enthusiasm among Latino voters in battleground states like Virginia, who are more engaged than Latinos in less-contested states like California and Texas. The growing population of Latino voters in Virginia is both more enthusiastic about the election than most Latinos, and more likely to decide the outcome of the very close presidential and Senate races here.”

Among the poll’s findings:

Virginia Latinos Favor Democrats by Wide Margins

• In the presidential race, 66% of Virginia Latinos said they will vote for President Obama, while 22% said they will vote for Romney and 7% are undecided.
• In the U.S. Senate race, 64% of Virginia Latinos said they will vote for Tim Kaine, while 24% said they will vote for George Allen and 12% are undecided.
• In addition, 62% of Virginia Latinos said they will vote for the Democratic candidate in their U.S. House race, while 19% will vote Republican and 18% are undecided.

Candidates’ Immigration Positions Matter to Virginia Latinos

• 64% of respondents said that immigration was “the most important issue” or “one of the most important issues” in their voting decisions this year.
• After hearing about President Obama’s deferred action policy, 57% of respondents said that they were “more enthusiastic” about voting for Obama and 8% said that they were “less enthusiastic.” Meanwhile, after hearing about Mitt Romney’s recent announcement that he would not revoke deferred action for DREAMers whose applications are approved under Obama but would stop approving applications for relief once he is elected, 13% of respondents said that they were “more enthusiastic” about Romney and 43% of respondents said that they were “less enthusiastic.”
• After hearing about Senate candidate Tim Kaine’s support for the DREAM Act, 65% of Latinos said they were “more enthusiastic” about Kaine and 6% said they were “less enthusiastic.” After hearing about George Allen’s opposition to the DREAM Act and proposal to build a fence along the border, 8% of respondents said they were “more enthusiastic” about Allen and 49% said they were “less enthusiastic.”

Immigration is Not Just a Policy Issue: It’s Personal

• 48% of Virginia Latinos said that immigration was the most important issue facing the Latino community that Congress and the President should address, while 47% said the same about the economy, jobs, and unemployment.
• 66% of Virginia Latinos know someone who is undocumented, and 54% know someone who may be eligible for the DREAM Act.
• When asked how enthusiastic they are about voting in the election this year,” 73% of respondents said that they were “very enthusiastic” about voting in the upcoming election.
• In a separate question that asked “would you say you are more enthusiastic about voting in 2012, or that you were more enthusiastic about voting back in 2008?” 68% said that they were “more enthusiastic” about voting in 2012 than they were about voting in 2008.

According to Vanessa Cardenas, Executive Director of Progress 2050 Action at the Center for American Progress Action Fund: “The youth and diversity of Virginia’s Latino community distinguishes it from many other Latino communities around the country, and the immigrant experience is especially close to Latinos’ hearts here. In the last few years, Latinos witnessed a very ugly debate around anti-immigrant ordinances in Prince William County that caused many Latinos to leave the county, devastating local business. This has taught Latino voters here that immigration and the economy are not only fundamental issues for their community, but that part of fixing the economy is welcoming immigrants.”

Alfonso Lopez, a delegate in the Virginia House of Delegates, added that “Since 2000, Latino voter participation in the Commonwealth of Virginia has gone up between 1 and 3 percent every election cycle. But the legislation that the House of Delegates has put forward has been decidedly anti-immigrant. Legislators who think they can succeed politically by demonizing the immigrant community have proposed bills that would turn public schools into immigration enforcers, keep valedictorians out of public colleges, and deter victims from reporting crimes. In the upcoming session, the legislature will consider an Arizona-style bill to require immigrants to carry ID with them at all times—and the small minority of pro-immigrant and Democratic legislators will have more difficulty stopping it than we had in the past. These numbers are incredibly heartening, because demographic shifts are coming to Virginia, and will wipe out the effects of the short-sighted anti-immigrant politicking we see now.”

Frank Sharry, executive director of America’s Voice, said, “While Virginia isn’t traditionally a state where Latino voters have held a lot of sway, with this year’s extremely tight race in both the Presidential and Senate contests, and a rapidly growing number of Latino voters in the northern Virginia region, these voters are poised to play a decisive role in both races. Despite Govenor Romney’s surge in national polls in recent weeks, his numbers with Latino voters are at a dismal 22 percent. For Virginia’s Latino voters, two-thirds of whom report knowing an undocumented immigrant, this issue is personal, and Romney’s far right position endorsing ‘self-deportation’ could end up losing him this battleground state.”

Download Full Virginia Poll Results Here

This article was first published in Latino Decisions.

By Latino Decisions

ImpreMedia & Latino Decisions released the latest in a series of tracking polls today revealing support for President Obama slipped from 72% last week to 67% this week, suggesting that his debate performance also led some Latino voters to re-evaluate the President. Those who said they are certain to vote for Romney increased slightly from 20% last week to 23% this week.  When asked how important the presidential debates are, 76% of all Latinos said a candidate’s performance in the presidential debate was important in how they evaluated a candidate. [Full Oct 15 results posted here]

With little-to-no attention on Latino voters on the national level since the conventions, enthusiasm among Latinos voters has slightly dropped indicating the race may have turned more into a matter of turnout rather than candidate support.

Two weeks ago, 93% of voters described themselves as “very enthusiastic” or “somewhat enthusiastic” about this election, but that number dropped to 81% in this week’s poll.  With little change in the partisan numbers for Obama and Romney, the enthusiasm numbers may the most crucial indicator on Election Day, with the Latino vote being cast as decisive in many states such as Florida, Nevada, Colorado and Virginia.  The tracking poll is nationally representative across all 50 states, and enthusiasm in competitive states may be higher than the national average.

“The convention and events right after had a very positive effect for President Obama,” said Monica Lozano, CEO of impreMedia “but his performance in the first debate has led to a new round of questioning by Latino voters especially among the independents.”

According to data from the poll, 32% of registered Latino voters identify as Independent, and within this group 51%, say they are planning to vote for President Obama, 29% say they will vote for Romney and 20% are undecided.

“The debate, and perhaps more importantly the press coverage after the debate, affected Latino voters like all others,” stated Gary Segura of Latino Decisions. “Support for the president, and enthusiasm for turning out to vote, have both dropped measurably. This effect extends to his party. While the president still enjoys a considerable advantage over Governor Romney and the Republicans, it is clear that he and his campaign have serious work to do to recover the heights they reached in the post-convention bounce.”

When asked if they thought Democrats were doing a good job of reaching out to Hispanics, 53% said yes compared to 65% a week ago, again suggesting the President’s debate performance impacted support for the Party as well.  However, there have been no signs of improvement in perceptions of the Republican Party with 17% saying the GOP was doing a good job of outreach to Hispanics.

Evaluation of National Latino Leaders

This week’s polling data also found that very few Latino elected officials have national name recognition, with a few exceptions. In the battery of favorability ratings, the impreMedia-Latino Decisions tracking poll included questions about six Republican, and five Democratic Latinos that have received national attention as of late.  While many may be well-known in their home state, very few have much national recognition.

Leading the list was Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa with 39% favorable, 11% unfavorable for a net favorability of +28.  Still 15% had no opinion and 36% had never heard of Villaraigosa. Next on the list was New Jersey Senator Robert Menendez with +23 net favorability and 41% saying never heard of.  Third on the list was San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro with +19 net favorability, but a majority (53%) saying they had never heard of him.  On the Republican side, the most recognized was Florida Senator Marco Rubio with 31% favorable compared to 21% unfavorable, and 38% “never heard of”.  Other Republican Latinos who have been campaigning for Mitt Romney had very low name recognition, which may suggest limited appeal.

METHODOLOGY

This is the eighth release of an 11-week tracking poll of Latino registered voters. Each week impreMedia and Latino Decisions will release a new rolling cross- section of 300 completed interviews with Latino registered voters across all 50 states. Interviews are conducted in English or Spanish, at the preference of the respondent, all conducted by bilingual interviewers at Latino Decisions calling center, Pacific Market Research. The survey averaged 10 minutes in length, and has an overall margin of error of 5.6% on results that approach a 50/50 distribution. All respondents confirm that they are Hispanic or Latino and currently registered to vote. This third wave of the survey was fielded Oct 5-Oct 11, 2012.

This article was first published in Latino Decisions.

By Earl Ofari Hutchinson, New America Media

When the presidential debate dust finally settles, President Obama and GOP Presidential foe Mitt Romney will have spent a grand total of four and one half hours battering each other on who can do the best or worst job on tax reform, job creation, deficit reduction, staunching Iran’s nukes, and getting a grip on Middle East affairs. These are the same issues that the two have talked to near life support for months on end. The pundits, a big chunk of the media, and millions of Americans can virtually recite by rote the punch lines of both candidates on these issues. They are that familiar and worked over.

The same can’t be said of the other equally big ticket items that affect tens of millions of American’s lives, pocketbooks and well-being. The most ignored of these ignored issues is poverty. The figures from every recent study and survey on poverty and income inequality are increasingly well-known and appalling. More Americans in recent years have sunk below the poverty line. Their income gap has widened to the greatest spread in decades. And more Americans have slid from what once was considered the middle-class into the ranks of the poor. Romney has uttered the word “poverty” a couple of times on the campaign trail, and Obama has referenced that people are hurting economically. But that’s about it.

Education is a close second of the ignored issues. Obama and Romney could do a whole debate on this one. They can tell what’s right or wrong about charter schools versus public schools, and what they’d do to make both either more widespread in the case of charters, or more effective in the case of public schools.

The United States has long had the dubious distinction of incarcerating more of its citizens than many nations combined. The number jailed has topped 2 million for several years. State legislators have pulled their hair out trying to figure out some way, any way, to get a handle on the surging incarceration numbers. They’ve farmed out inmates, wrestled with court orders to reduce the jail numbers, slashed budgets, and have come up with every kind of innovative alternative non-incarceration measure they can to end overcrowding. The close kin to that ignored issue is the drug war. It has wreaked havoc and mayhem on families, swamped prisons, and the courts, and ballooned state and federal prison budgets. Romney has been mute on the issue. Obama has taken quiet action to end the disparities in crack cocaine sentencing, and has hinted that drug reform will be a possible priority of his during his second term. But that’s where the talk on the issue has ended.

Then there’s the housing crisis. The runaway number one reason for the financial tumble that shook the financial world and nearly collapsed the economy was the foreclosure debacle and the banks and financial industry’s well documented abuses of it. Tens of thousands of homebuyers were victimized by the housing crisis and they still are still with their homes underwater financially, facing foreclosure, and the free-fall drop in their personal wealth from plunged home equity. Romney and Obama have talked about the crisis, and Obama has tried mightily to put reforms in place to help thousands save their homes. But it’s been missing from the campaign debate.

Civil rights have been ignored in presidential debates for two decades. The issue is now even more compelling with the Supreme Court’s pending affirmative action decision. Yet the virtual unwritten rule is the subject is out of bounds for debate. Race is simply too prickly, too charged, and too much of minefield that candidate fear to tread through. This is a natural segue to the debates that ignore what kind of Supreme Court Obama and Romney want to see. The Court will have a profound impact on law and public policy for years to come. There is an ocean wide gulf between Obama and Romney’s views of what kind of justices they like, and what their view of the role of the court should be in deciding law, and public policy issues.

The jousts that Obama and Romney will engage in and the barbs they toss at each other in their debates tell much about which candidate is the niftiest and nimblest on their feet with a pointed response or rebuttal to an attack. Americans want presidents to be able to think on their feet and respond thoughtfully and swiftly to a crisis. They regard this as firm leadership. This instantly tags an administration as a resounding success or a dismal failure. But most Americans also want and demand some substance to go along with the style points that presidential debaters try to snag at the expense of the their opponent. This means above all talking about the issues, all the issues that impact on the lives of Americans. But when a handful of issues are cherry picked, and encoded as templates, that the candidates endlessly rehash, then the debates become thoroughly formula and predictable. This hasn’t changed during the past decade of presidential debates, and the Obama and Romney tiffs haven’t changed that either.

This article was first published in New America Media.

Earl Ofari Hutchinson is an author and political analyst. He is a frequent political commentator on MSNBC and a weekly co-host of the Al Sharpton Show on American Urban Radio Network. He is the author of How Obama Governed: The Year of Crisis and Challenge. He is an associate editor of New America Media. He is the host of the weekly Hutchinson Report on KPFK-Radio and the Pacifica Network.
Follow Earl Ofari Hutchinson on Twitter: http://twitter.com/earlhutchinson

[Photo By sidewalk flying]