NewsTaco

By Dan Amira, New York Magazine

According to a (caveat: very, very early) Quinnipiac poll, 60 percent of Hispanic voters would support Clinton in 2016, compared to a mere 24 percent for Rubio. Chris Christie, who is not Hispanic, pulled in 23 percent of the Hispanic vote to 62 percent for Clinton.

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[Photos by  US Embassy New Zealand, Gage Skidmore]

By Kelsey Osterman, Red Alert Politics

Rubio’s prospective win with Hispanics, 48 percent to 34 percent against Clinton, is of major importance to the GOP. The Party has struggled to seem relatable to Hispanic voters, with President Obama taking 67 percent in 2008 and 70 percent in 2012.

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[Photo by DonkeyHotey]

By Christopher Sabatini, Voxxi

In her four-year term, Hillary Clinton has not only been the State Department’s most traveled secretary of state in history, she’s also been a frequent flier to Latin America and the Caribbean. In 22 trips to the region (including Canada), she traveled to 31 countries.

Can we expect the same level of attention from secretary of state nominee, Senator John Kerry? Not likely, though that may not be a bad thing.

By 2008, U.S. political capital in the region was badly damaged. In the first four years of President George W. Bush’s administration, a number of high-level government officials made little effort to hide their preferences for specific candidates or parties in elections in Nicaragua, Bolivia and Venezuela, violating a long-standing policy—in place since the presidency of President Bush’s father—to support the process of democratic elections regardless of their outcomes. Moreover the brief embrace of the seizure of power in Venezuela during the confusion that erupted on April 11, 2002 after troops, acting on orders from President Hugo Chavez, fired on protestors—further inflaming regional suspicions that the U.S. was up to its old habits of interventionism in the region.

While the Bush Administration course-corrected in its later years, the perception and lingering suspicion remained.

For many, inside and outside the United States, the election of President Barack Obama was an opportunity to reset the relationship. But politics in the region had changed too much. A new generation of populist presidents in Venezuela, Ecuador and Bolivia, the so-called ALBA alliance, (largely as a means to assert their own sovereignty) refused to let the old suspicions die. At the same time, concerns about their intentions, within their own countries and outside of it, remained, irrespective of the party in the White House.

Hillary Clinton’s role in Latin America

President Obama and his Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, did bring a new tone that helped smooth over relations, especially with the other countries in the hemisphere, but there was no going back to the days of regional consensus and partnership with the United States that had marked relations under President George Bush (father) and President Bill Clinton.

In the early years of the administration, Clinton tried. She traveled with President Obama to the Summit of the Americas in April 2009 in Trinidad and Tobago and went to the Organization of American States (OAS) General Assembly in June the same year. But these high-level efforts did not reward her efforts, nor did the subsequent trip to the Summit of the Americas in Colombia last year. Chavez and several other countries friendly to his project turned these into platforms to embarrass the United States rather than focus on concrete problems such as security and development that were on the agendas. Most of the real work on issues near and dear to her heart was done on her bilateral trips.

It was Secretary Hillary Clinton’s personal interest and dedication to development and social inclusion that drove her engagement in much of the region and will differentiate her foreign policy from any future tenure under Senator Kerry. Since her time as First Lady, Hillary  Clinton has shown a deep commitment to health, women’s rights and economic empowerment issues. Development issues became a centerpiece of her visits whether it was women’s leadership in Peru, economic empowerment in Colombia and of course Haiti, which she visited four times. Her commitment to social inclusion also led to the creation of a social inclusion division within the Western Hemisphere Bureau.

In contrast, Senator Kerry has shown little interest in the sorts of development issues that would make him look south. While on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and in his capacity as a special emissary for the Obama administration, his focus has been on the traditional areas and themes of U.S. foreign policy, the Middle East, Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan and China.

None of this is to say that, should he become Secretary of State, Senator Kerry will ignore the region nor that he won’t bring special skills that are relevant to the hemisphere. For one, it is quite likely that several crises in the region will force him to become involved, among them the challenge of narcotics trafficking and security in Mexico and Central America, the complex political transition in the midst of high levels of polarization in Venezuela and the process of change in Cuba—coming in part from the possible (though never certain) death of Fidel Castro (who is 86) and/or Raul (who is 81).

For another, the prism of development may not be the most appropriate approach to a changed region. The existence of the Venezuela-led ALBA countries and the economic and diplomatic rise of Brazil could well benefit from diplomatic tools and approaches from other regions. The question then is: Given all the pressing issues on any secretary of state’s agenda, when and why will he need to look south?

This article was first published in Voxxi.

Christopher Sabatini is Senior Director of Policy at the Americas Society/Council of the Americas, Editor-in-Chief of “Americas Quarterly” and an adjunct professor at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs.

[Photo courtesy The White House]

By Tony Castro, Voxxi

Texas Democratic power brokers are quietly promoting rising star Julian Castro as a consensus building leader with bipartisan support as they position the charismatic San Antonio mayor for the party’s 2016 presidential ticket.

In Julian Castro, who vaulted into the American spotlight at the Democratic National Convention last September, Democrats believe they have what one party leader called “the next Obama” who could be vital to retaining the White House.

The 38-year-old mayor would give Democrats the inside track to the ever-increasing Latino vote, which is expected to be even more pivotal in 2016 than it has ever been.

But Castro’s political Achilles heel is that his home state has been solidly red for a generation and that, even with Texas’s large Hispanic vote, Democrats have not won a statewide race in almost two decades.

Top Democratic leaders, though, believe that Castro would give the party a unique opportunity to capture the state’s 38 electoral votes in 2016, given his pull among Latinos as well as by positioning him as a consensus builder along the lines of Texas legend Lyndon Johnson.

The Texas electoral votes together with the 55 of solidly blue state California could potentially give a Democratic nominee 93 electoral votes, more than a third of the 270 needed for election.

Some Texas Democrats who are preparing behind-the-scenes to soon begin working on Hillary Clinton’s 2016 presidential campaign are even wishfully talking about a Hillary-Julian dream ticket.

But the Democrats hoping to groom Castro into a national candidate are urging supporters to rein in such talk.

Julian Castro’s national image

Julian Castro, meanwhile, has been carefully developing the national image that got a rocket boost with his speech as the keynote speaker of the Democratic National Convention, the same role that in 2004 kicked off Obama’s presidential dreams.

Castro has been in high demand at speaking engagements around the country, and he is expected to have a formal introduction to Washington next month at the president’s inauguration as well as at his brother Joaquin’s swearing-in as one of Texas’ newest Congressmen.

It all has made talk of a Latino presidency inevitable, and Castro has not shied away from the discussion.

“I’m confident that with all the progress that the United States has made, people from many different backgrounds will become presidents in my lifetime,” he said in a recent interview.

“So I do believe that within the next generation there will be a Latino president, and it will be someone who represents everyone, who is an American president, not a Latino president.”

This article was first published in Voxxi.

Los Angeles based writer Tony Castro is the author of the critically-acclaimed “Chicano Power: The Emergence of Mexican America” and the best-selling “Mickey Mantle: America’s Prodigal Son.”

[Photo by Demconvention.com]

By Raisa Camargo, Voxxi

Election Day is officially a week old, but that hasn’t stopped the mainstream media from speculating whether Hillary Clinton should run in 2016.

The Clintons still hold plenty of sway with Latino voters some analysts would venture to indicate. Bill Clinton also did events or calls for 52  down-ballot candidates this cycle, many of whom won on Tuesday, according to Politico.

In terms of the Latino vote, the Clintons have also established their relationship with the Latino community for years. Juan Andrade, president of the U.S. Hispanic Leadership Institute, was quick to note Hillary’s potential appeal to the Latino community.

“If she jumps in the race in 2016, she’ll be the favorite among Latino voters,” said Andrade. “The Clintons they go back to 1972 in the Latino community. No one goes back that far in the Latino community.”

Hillary held the Hispanic edge over Obama

It was Hillary who held the edge over Latino voters during the Democratic primaries in 2008. Obama was heavily criticized at the time for his lack of strategy on appealing to the Latino community.

“During the primaries, Hillary Clinton was really the Latino candidate for president,” said Angelo Falcon, president of the National Institute for Latino Policy. “If you look at the news media exit polls, you’ll notice that the only other candidate for president who got a higher percentage than the 71 percent that supposedly Latinos gave to Obama was Bill Clinton.”

In 1996, Falcon cited that Bill Clinton received an estimated 72 percent of the Latino vote.

A previous poll showed Hillary ahead at the time among Latinos in five top Hispanic states. Some of the Democratic Hispanic candidates were also quick to back Clinton. But Clinton’s list of Latino endorsements was longer, according to news reports. Falcon added that loyalty among Latino party elected officials ran deeper for Hillary because Obama was unknown at the time.

“Hillary and Bill Clinton not only know where they (Hispanics) live, they’ve been to their houses already,” said Andrade.

Hillary Clinton 2016, too early bid

Still, analysts are careful to signal Hillary’s shot considering it’s too early to tell whether she will even run. She decided to sit out the second term under the Obama administration and that caused some to question whether it’s a long term break.

There is also more expectation on the Democratic Party to perform on immigration reform. That could alter the political environment for possible presidential Democratic contenders in 2016. Much of that also depends on the stance the Republican Party will take in the next four years.

“There are too many things that are unanswered at this point,” said Falcon.

Already two Democratic Senators are pushing for a bipartisan consensus on immigration reform. And with the key swing states where Latinos grew could draw plenty of contention in the next election cycle, the need for the Latino vote in 2016 will be even more crucial. Liz Lopez, a Democratic strategist and Counsel in the Washington, D.C. office of Barnes & Thornburg LLP, said she “wishes” Hillary would throw her support behind the presidential bid in 2016.

“She was already a very strong candidate, but now we would have a woman that has served as a Senator, has served as a cabinet member, has been in the White House,” Lopez said. “It’s a very unique set of skills she will be bringing to the presidency.”

Yet, instead of focusing on the Republicans, Falcon said the real pressure should be placed on the Democratic Party.

“If the Democrats don’t come through on immigration reform—we’re going to be back to square one down the road no matter what happens November 6,” said Falcon. ”The Latino community has been one of the most loyal segments of the Democratic Party and I think it’s about time we cash in on that and make them pay up after all these years.”

This article was first published in Voxxi.

Raisa Camargo is a staff writer at Voxxi.

[Photo by DonkeyHotey]

By Jesse Treviño, HispanicLatino

The just-past national conventions dropped a number of stones into the political pond ahead of 2016.  The splash from each stone might be dismissed as early speculation but in politics speculation mists the leaves of future candidacies.  From each splash-point already radiates the ripples that will form the ebb and flow of the currents leading to the next series of election cycles.

Some of the ripples emanating from Charlotte and Tampa were larger than others.  Some will have staying power but most will run out of energy over time, dreams lost in the backwaters of unviability.  Other currents, perhaps waves, might form as human events trigger as yet unseen political storms.  But whatever crests come at whatever time, they will have to lap up against the immediate reality of a woman named Hillary Clinton.

How well the Romney-Ryan ticket fares and/or the success or failure of a second Obama-Biden term, if there is one, are irrelevant to a Clinton Restoration.  Assuming a healthy Hillary is assuming history.  She has the whole crew waiting to sign on: Women, women with money, HispanicLatinos, African Americans, gays and lesbians, gays and lesbians with money.  And she does not do badly in the hills, either.  This time around, any tears in New Hampshire might be about wrapping up the nomination in two weeks’ time. Nonetheless, still political waters are anything but, and many circle in wait, nostrils wide open for any hint of blood in the water.

The names already in the swirl in alphabetical though not viable order are: New York Governor Andrew Cuomo; Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper; Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley; Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick; and Sen. Mark Warner of Virginia.  These at the moment loiter more as vice presidential tadpoles than head tuna.  And some might not be seaworthy in the least for one or many reasons.  Assuming a Clinton from New York leading the ticket, Cuomo would be sunk by the Constitution.  O’Malley and Patrick are not feasible unless Hillary harbors a desire for northeastern overload.  More interesting strategically are Hickenlooper and Warner.  Each is from a critical state but Democrats might want to opt for someone whose name does not rival Estes Kefauver’s in peculiarity.  Clinton-Hickenlooper sounds like a colleague of Senator Snort or a new, snazzy microwaveable popcorn.

Before Warner begins his run upstream, he and his supporters need to keep in mind that the calendar might spawn a surprise.  After all, the current election and the 2014 election year do precede 2016.  Who know what the voters will have wrought, though Warner’s re-election in 2014 will be critical to a Democratic majority in the Senate and much attention will be paid to him – not a bad position. But a more bankable certainty is the continuing, incessant rain of new HispanicLatino voters ponding in the national political puddle called the electorate.

The demographic front that blew in starting in 1972 signaling the retrenchment of the “white” population began an expansion of the HispanicLatino share of the national voter pool that will increase each election cycle for the next 30 years.  Thus, depending on how close is the election of 2012 and how pivotal the HispanicLatino vote, the make-up of a second Obama Cabinet might launch another boomlet or two, certainly for the second spot on the ticket.

Obama if he wins is certain to overhaul his Cabinet to give his Presidency a second wind, and a HispanicLatino from the Obama Cabinet paddling directly on to the Democratic ticket is a distinct possibility.  More than a dozen times in U.S. history, a Cabinet member has joined a national ticket.  And John McCain in 2008 did HispanicLatinos a tremendous favor in choosing as his running mate Sarah Palin, the totally unknown governor of a state with a population half of a city like, say, San Antonio, Texas, whose population is more than 250 times the size of the Alaskan outpost of Wasilla.

The media has noted the possible seaworthiness of new-splasher Julián Castro.  But what happens if a HispanicLatino were elected this year or in 2014 in a critical state?  Arizona, Florida, Nevada and New Mexico come to mind.  What if Democrats unexpectedly engaged in strategic thinking and recruited dynamic HispanicLatinos to topple Republicans Susana Martínez in New Mexico and/or Brian Sandoval in Nevada in 2014?  What if Puerto Rican, American-citizen Richard Carmona wins his race for the U.S. Senate this year in Arizona?  Any HispanicLatinos up for a statewide race in Florida in 2014?

The splash Martínez and Sandoval and Marco Rubio made at their convention in Tampa makes veep material of them all, Martínez specifically.  Their success has lifted the HispanicLatino boat on the Democratic side.  Whichever party goes first in convention in 2016 cannot afford to cede to the other the opportunity to name a HispanicLatino to their national ticket.  A HispanicLatino on the ticket in 2016 is as close to certain as anything else.

And that is not wet speculation.

This article was first published in HispanicLatino.

Jesse Treviño is the former editorial page editor of The Austin American-Statesman and writes at HispanicLatino.com. 

[Photo by US Embassy New Zealand]