February 6, 2013 
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By Jack Carver, The Cap Times
By far the largest Hispanic constituency is found in the Milwaukee-centered 4th District. At 16.9 percent, the Hispanic population in that district mirrors that of the nation (16.7 percent).
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January 16, 2013 0 Comments
By Tony Castro, Voxxi
Former state Sen. Jim Brulte, the frontrunner to become the next chair of the California GOP has made the state’s Latino electorate the centerpiece of a makeover he says will turnaround the Republican Party’s fortunes.
“Jim Brulte says he has a six-year-plan to make the GOP the party of Hispanics in California,” says political consultant William Orozo. “He says he’s going to make Latinos forget about Proposition 187 and Pete Wilson.
“And who knows? Politics sometimes has such a short attention span that in six years, 2019, he might just succeed.”
Proposition 187 is the anti-immigrant state measure that the GOP championed in the mid-1990s that many blame for alienating Latinos and for the downfall of the Republican Party in the state since that time.
Wilson was the Republican California governor who made Proposition 187 his personal crusade.
Approved by voters in 1994, the measure sought, among other things, to require police, health care professionals and teachers to verify and report the immigration status of all individuals, including children.
The courts eventually dismantled the measure and made it meaningless except as a symbol for Hispanics of GOP exclusion.
The decline of the state GOP became evident this past election in California when only 29 percent of the state’s voters were registered as Republicans, compared to 43 percent for Democrats.
On Monday, California Republican activists became the latest to meet in an attempt to figure out a game plan for making their party viable again.
It was at that meeting in San Diego that Brulte announced he would be a candidate for state GOP chairman, a position he is expected to win.
In pushing his plan to woo Latinos, though, Brulte will have to walk a fine line with the state’s die-hard conservatives and Tea Party people, say insiders.
“But Jim knows where the future of California politics is,” said one GOP insider. “It’s the Latino vote, and he knows you have to go after it as you would a pretty girl because, as 2012 showed, the Latino vote is the darling of American politics right now.”
According to insiders, Brulte’s rebuilding is a six-year-plan because the state party has problems that go beyond having alienated Hispanics, resulting in not having any Republican holding a statewide elected office.
The state party is almost broke, with a half-million-dollar debt and down to only three full-time staffers, two of whom work from home. It also has almost no grassroots organization to speak of.
In Brulte, the GOP has a leader who typifies the about-face the party faces, say insiders.
His legislative record was that of a conservative, but he recognizes the new political landscape in California.
“His voting record is strongly conservative, but he also knows how to reach out to moderates and Democrats,” said Claremont McKenna College political scientist Jack Pitney.
Republican consultant Luis Alvarado, who is also president of the Republican National Hispanic Assembly of Greater Los Angeles, is among those Hispanics who are encouraged.
“We’re going back to the party of Shogun-type dynasties, where the Tea Party has their coalition, and the moderates have their coalition, and it’s going to be a battle to see who comes out on top,” he had said just weeks ago, in the aftermath of the election.
Now he says Brulte may be the ideal candidate for the political challenge at hand, adding:
“I have not heard a single person tell me that they would be opposed to him as a leader.”
This article was first published in Voxxi.
Los Angeles based writer Tony Castro is the author of the critically-acclaimed “Chicano Power: The Emergence of Mexican America” and the best-selling “Mickey Mantle: America’s Prodigal Son.”
[Photo by Steve Rhodes]
January 4, 2013 0 Comments
By Griselda Nevárez, Voxxi
Former U.S. Surgeon General Richard Carmona, who ran an unsuccessful bid for U.S. Senate in Arizona last November, is now considering running for governor in 2014.
Carmona, who is of Puerto Rican descent, lost by 3 percentage points to Republican Jeff Flake last year to succeed retiring Sen. Jon Kyl, R-Ariz. A victory for Carmona would’ve made him the first Latino to represent Arizona in the U.S. Senate and the first Democrat to win the senate seat in more than two decades.
Andy Barr, a spokesperson for Carmona, recently told The Arizona Republic that supporters from the Grand Canyon State and from across the nation are urging Carmona to run for the governor’s seat being vacated by Gov. Jan Brewer.
“He’s looking at all his options,” Barr told the daily newspaper. “I think if he were to run, the infrastructure would be in place, support would be in place, money would be in place for him. He’s gotten a lot of calls from folks encouraging him to run.”
Barr also said that if Carmona decides to run for governor, his announcement to run wouldn’t come any time soon.
Rodolfo Espino, an associate professor of political science at Arizona State University, told VOXXI Richard Carmona’s chances of winning the governor’s seat have increased because he has greater name recognition due to his bid for U.S. Senate.
However, Espino said Carmona would have to start his campaign much earlier than he did during the U.S. Senate race and raise more money. As of Nov. 26, Carmona had raised $6,459,521 in total receipts for his bid for U.S. Senate last year, according to the Federal Election Commission.
Political analysts also contend that Carmona’s lengthy resume—which includes military service and law-enforcement experience—as well as being recruited by former President George W. Bush to serve as surgeon general from 2002 to 2006 helps him attract support from Republicans and Democrats alike.
In 2006, Carmona was also approached by several Republicans who encouraged him to run for governor or Congress. Six years later, President Barack Obama personally called Carmona, who at the time was a registered independent, to encourage him to run as a Democrat for the U.S. Senate seat.
In Arizona, Republicans and Democrats are already lining up to potentially run for the governor’s seat.
But Gov. Brewer, whose second term expires at the end of 2014, is not ruling out the possibility of running for a third term. Arizona law only allows her to serve two consecutive terms. However, she and her attorneys argue that because she inherited her seat in 2009—when then-Democratic Gov. Janet Napolitano left to become the secretary of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security—she should be allowed to serve a third term.
Her attorneys continue researching the constitutionality of having Brewer serve a third term. Meanwhile, Arizona Secretary of State Ken Bennett, who is also considering running for governor, said in December that he doesn’t believe the state Constitution allows Brewer to serve a third term.
This article was first published in Voxxi.
Griselda Nevárez is a reporter with Hispanic Link News Service in Washington D.C.
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January 2, 2013 0 Comments
By Tony Castro, Voxxi
In Julian Castro, who vaulted into the American spotlight at the Democratic National Convention last September, Democrats believe they have what one party leader called “the next Obama” who could be vital to retaining the White House.
The 38-year-old mayor would give Democrats the inside track to the ever-increasing Latino vote, which is expected to be even more pivotal in 2016 than it has ever been.
But Castro’s political Achilles heel is that his home state has been solidly red for a generation and that, even with Texas’s large Hispanic vote, Democrats have not won a statewide race in almost two decades.
Top Democratic leaders, though, believe that Castro would give the party a unique opportunity to capture the state’s 38 electoral votes in 2016, given his pull among Latinos as well as by positioning him as a consensus builder along the lines of Texas legend Lyndon Johnson.
The Texas electoral votes together with the 55 of solidly blue state California could potentially give a Democratic nominee 93 electoral votes, more than a third of the 270 needed for election.
Some Texas Democrats who are preparing behind-the-scenes to soon begin working on Hillary Clinton’s 2016 presidential campaign are even wishfully talking about a Hillary-Julian dream ticket.
But the Democrats hoping to groom Castro into a national candidate are urging supporters to rein in such talk.
Julian Castro, meanwhile, has been carefully developing the national image that got a rocket boost with his speech as the keynote speaker of the Democratic National Convention, the same role that in 2004 kicked off Obama’s presidential dreams.
Castro has been in high demand at speaking engagements around the country, and he is expected to have a formal introduction to Washington next month at the president’s inauguration as well as at his brother Joaquin’s swearing-in as one of Texas’ newest Congressmen.
It all has made talk of a Latino presidency inevitable, and Castro has not shied away from the discussion.
“I’m confident that with all the progress that the United States has made, people from many different backgrounds will become presidents in my lifetime,” he said in a recent interview.
This article was first published in Voxxi.
Los Angeles based writer Tony Castro is the author of the critically-acclaimed “Chicano Power: The Emergence of Mexican America” and the best-selling “Mickey Mantle: America’s Prodigal Son.”
[Photo by Demconvention.com]
November 13, 2012 0 Comments
By Rosario Dawson, Huffington Post Latino Voices
The American future is here, and there’s great news: the future votes.
For years, political pundits have been predicting the full arrival of America’s emerging majority. And all the while, cynical politicians have attempted to hold back the future, appealing to voters’ old prejudices and fears instead of adjusting to the future electorate waiting in the wings.
Tuesday’s elections make it crystal clear — not only has the future arrived, but our next generation of American leaders is fired up about taking their place in our political process.
On the ground in communities across the country, I’ve worked hand in hand with these voters — unbelievable, inspirational young people charting a bold course of empowerment, action, and ownership over their destinies.
In Florida and in Alabama and in Washington D.C., I was stunned to meet with whole college auditoriums bursting students schooling me in diversity and incredible new ideas. In my role as Voto Latino Chairwoman, I went expecting to give something of a lecture about activism, culture, and voting. What I got was the reverse — a full-blown crash course in what it means to be part of this emerging majority, a young person with dreams to prove and a fire inside.
On the road in California, New York, and across America, I’ve…
READ MORE HERE
This article was first published in Huffington post Latino Voices.
Rosario Dawson is an actress and co-founder of Voto Latino.
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November 8, 2012 0 Comments
Latino support for President Obama was huge, with a record-breaking 75% of Latino voters nationwide (see below) casting their ballot for the President- the previous high for Latino voters was the 72% for Bill Clinton in 1996. Romney’s share of 23% was nowhere near the 38% his team identified as his “magic number” for Latinos nationally.
The Latino vote share numbers across key states were even more pronounced, with Latinos exceeding the national average of 75% in most of the battleground states, including a remarkable 87% in Colorado and 80% in Nevada. The 66% of Latinos who voted for Obama in Virginia, 58% in Florida, and 82% in Ohio were also critical to the overall outcome of the race. At the end of the day, we estimate that the Latino vote led to a net margin gain for President Obama of +5.4%, and a +2.3% bump in the national popular vote. Consequently, if Latinos had split their vote evenly (50/50) in this election, President Obama would have lost the national popular vote. For the first time in American history, the Latino electorate has a legitimate claim of being nationally decisive!
What explains the huge numbers for Obama? As detailed in the webinar slides, Romney suffered from both an outreach problem to Latino voters as well as a policy agenda that just did not resonate with the Latino electorate. A robust 56% of Latino voters nationally did not feel that Romney “cares much” about the Latino community, with another 18% feeling as though the Romney campaign was “hostile” toward the Latino community. Conversely, 66% of Latinos indicated that President Obama “cares about” the Latino community. The same general pattern held across the state specific polls.
As we have been consistently reporting throughout the campaign, immigration policy was the key policy that likely explains the significant gap in vote choice for Latinos in 2012. Overall, 35% of Latino voters indicated that immigration policy was one of the two most important issues to the Latino community in 2012, with greater percentages across several key battleground states. As depicted below, Romney’s policy stance on immigration led nearly 60% of Latino voters to feel less enthusiastic about him, while President Obama benefited from a 58% increase in enthusiasm for his deferred action policy.
In what we view will be a watershed moment in American political history, Latino voters delivered in a major way for President Obama and the Democratic Party in 2012. Stay tuned for more in-depth analysis from Latino Decisions over the next few weeks, including a series of blogs focused on the nuances within several key states that decided the 2012 race.
This article was first published in Latino Decisions.
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November 8, 2012 0 Comments
By Peter Malof, Public News Service
EL PASO, Texas – As political analysts debate whether this week’s election results will ease the gridlock in Washington, D.C., some are predicting a quick breakthrough on at least one major issue. Immigration reform has been blocked in recent years – primarily by a Republican base that wants to seal the border first. That stance alienated enough Latino voters to help propel Democrats to a national victory this week, according to Adriana Cadena, statewide coordinator of the Reform Immigration for Texas Alliance. She says Hispanic voters will not be satisfied with anything less than comprehensive reforms.
“That means providing venues through which people who are here undocumented can become U.S. citizens. There’s really no other option, and the time is now.”
The debate is already heating up. Some conservative activists say they will continue fighting what they see as amnesty for millions who are in the country illegally, but other Republicans are calling for a reexamination of their party’s relationship to the growing Latino electorate. President Obama, meanwhile, wants reforms enacted soon, and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid promises to introduce a bill in the coming year.
Cadena thinks the election was a wake-up call for politicians, who now recognize that the large Latino turnout – 10 percent of the total – was only the beginning.
“There’s going to be a continued increase of Latino participation at the polls. For many years, people have been waiting for the “sleeping giant” to wake up. It has been years in the making, and it will continue to grow.”
Even though 69 percent of Latinos nationally voted Democratic, she says that support cannot be taken for granted. While the Obama administration over the past year eased up on deporting certain undocumented immigrants, many advocates are upset with the President for not trying harder to pass more comprehensive reform, as promised, during his first term.
Both parties, Cadena insists, will need to get serious about immigrant concerns if they expect to win Hispanic voters in the future.
“If they continue along this path of being anti-immigrant, they’re going to be on the wrong side of history. They have a lot to lose, but they also have a lot to gain if they actually treat Latinos with dignity and respect.”
Cadena does not buy the argument that reform must wait until the border is secure. She points out that President Obama deported a record number of undocumented immigrants during his first four years, and that the number of unauthorized border crossings is lower than it has been in decades.
This article was first published in Public News Service.
The Public News Service (PNS) provides reporting on a wide range of social, community, and environmental issues for mainstream and alternative media that amplifies progressive voices, is easy to use and has a proven track record of success. Supported by over 400 nonprofit organizations and other contributors, PNS provides high-quality news on public issues and current affairs.
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November 8, 2012 0 Comments
By Raisa Camargo, Voxxi
Grassroots organizations that have actively participated in the presidential campaign this year can almost breathe a sigh of reassurance.
The projection that 12.2 million Latinos would turn out in this election came close to achieving that goal, but the National Association of Appointed and Elected Officials (NALEO) asserted they would continue to analyze the results.
“The NALEO Educational Fund had projected that 12.2 million Latino voters would have participated in this year’s presidential election,” said Arturo Vargas, executive director of NALEO during a conference call on Wednesday.
Based on the exit poll of 10 percent of voters being Latino and with a national tally approaching 120,000 million total voters, “it seems that we are reaching very close to our projection of those 12 million voters,” he said.
In 2008, there were 9.7 Latinos who voted in the election and they comprised 7.4 percent of the total electorate. Many analysts suggest Latinos played a decisive role on many down ticket races.
“The Latino vote is on the rise,” affirmed Clarissa Martinez, civic engagement director of the National Council of La Raza. “It’s clear that when candidates take a stand on issues that matter to this community, engage in meaningful outreach, and build a relationship with these voters the community responds.”
These numbers further position Latinos in the new Congress to make inroads. A more pressing question is whether or not that will translate to actual results. Advocates are quick to project that the president will need to deliver on his promise for immigration reform in the next term or face retaliation.
Yet, Arnold Torres, a political consultant in California and former executive director of the League of United Latin American Citizens, believes Latino influence in the next Congress will largely depend on whether Hispanic politicians work together to present a vision that will unite them.
“Latinos are not monolithic,” said Torres. He pointed to the examples of Tea Party backed Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio. On that note, he affirmed that there are a majority of Latino Democrats in the House.
“Will all of them get together and present one agenda, one vision that is a reflection of where they come from?” he said.
As of today, the number of Latinos who are joining the House of Representatives tallied to a total of 28. There are also new Latino members in the United States Senate pushing the total to three Latinos, all of them are of Cuban descent.
The new faces in the House will include: Tony Cardenas from the San Fernando Valley in Los Angeles, Juan Vargas from the San Diego area in southern California, Raul Ruiz in southern California, and Michelle Lujan Grisham in New Mexico.
Other notable wins for the Latino caucus in the House include Solomon Vella in southern Texas, Joaquin Castro replacing Charlie Gonzalez and Pette Gallego who unseated Quico Canseco in Texas. Gloria Negrette Cloud in an intra-party fight defeated her fellow Democrat contender Rep. Joe Baca in California.
For some, the combination of Latino voters and new gains in Congress will for the first time sway political positions in Congress.
The myth that Latinos are a sleeping giant is broken claimed Ben Monterroso of Mi Familia Vota. He said because of the number of Latinos who voted in this election is unprecedented both the Republicans and the Democrats will do well to address concerns that are pressing for them. If not, he cautioned that in four years, once again, the “giant” will make itself known.
“No more the sleeping Giant,” said Monterroso. “The giant is awake.”
As an organization, Mi Familia Vota registered over 82,000 Latinos and reached out to over 300,000 Latinos. Whether it’s Obama or Romney who would have won the election they expect results, he said. Some of these decisions hinge on immigration reform and addressing policies that help alleviate economic woes, particularly since Latinos are hardest hit in the recession.
The stakes are now higher for Obama than the GOP.
“Despite over the millions of deportations, despite a number of other failures on foreclosures and many other issues, Hispanics still voted in higher numbers for this president than they had in 2008 when they didn’t know him and they really believed him in his campaign of change,” said Torres. “Yesterday, before the election was over, they were already issuing a press release saying: ‘You owe us.’”
Now that the tables have turned and Latinos are poised to play a role in shaping the political sphere, Torres says there’s a greater need to stake out an early position on leadership in the next Congress.
“We must now distinguish ourselves as not waiting for the president to have to take a leadership role,” said Torres. “It’s incumbent upon Latinos if we have now graduated to serious politics—we have to step up further and take on the leadership on solving problems and not constantly waiting for others to act. We must present the president with our own vision.”
This article was first published in Voxxi.
Raisa Camargo is a staff writer at Voxxi.
[Photo by Renee Silverman]
November 6, 2012 0 Comments
By Raisa Camargo, Voxxi
On Election Day, there are two distinct paths that are at stake for Latino voters: One being the president’s policies as he heads into the second term and the other would rest on the chance that Mitt Romney would fare better in a divided Congress.
President Barack Obama’s campaign is reiterating that the growth of the Latino community will be felt at the polls. If he is reelected, it will be on the backs of Latino voters the campaign claims. That will send a message to opponents that the Latino community is a force.
“The Election of 2012 has seen a greater amount of engagement by both presidential campaigns to represent Latinos, there’s no question about that,” said Mickey Ibarra, founder of a Washington D.C. political consulting firm. “We may in fact see a performance that exceeds predictions that are commonly understood today.”
Ibarra added that conversely if turnout is less than predicted that could pose a big problem for the president’s reelection.
“Long term it could set back Latino political empowerment to a degree if in fact Latinos are looked upon as folks that didn’t show up on Election Day causing Mitt Romney to win,” he said. “It will not be a permanent setback because over time that’s going to occur—but most of us agree that it’s time for us to jump start that and we certainly can in this election.”
This photo taken Oct. 17, 2012 shows Cristina Aguilar, right, waiting with her granddaughter Enny Valle and Valle’s husband Josh Valle, as other family members visit a petting zoo inside an amusement park, in Las Vegas. Aguilar and others like her have turned what was once a reliably conservative, largely-rural state into a key political battleground and a test case for whether Republicans can succeed without the support of a rapidly-growing Hispanic community and its Latino voters. (AP Photo/Julie Jacobson)hemes such as immigration reform and other concerns including the social safety net are dominating agendas that Latino voters care about in the upcoming Congressional term, particularly in light of the looming fiscal cliff. If Congress does not deal with the rising deficit and come to a bipartisan agreement before the end of the year, across the board cuts would trim into domestic spending programs such as social security and health care services.
“Depending on which way you go it could have a negative effect on the Latino community or it could have a positive effect,” said Angelo Falcon, president of the National Institute for Latino Policy (NILP). “What’s clear is that there is a great fear in the Latino community that the Republicans position on many issues would be something that would be hurting this community. It would set the community back in many areas.”
Republicans agree that what’s at stake for Latino voters is more than a political platform and they believe Obama has not been able to reach out across the aisle to bring a bipartisan consensus as he promised.
“The largest group of children in poverty are Latinos,” said Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Fla.) “The first thing is at stake is whether our community, in the land of opportunity, would be able to find full-time jobs.”
He adds that other priorities would include the rising price of gas, a development of independent resources and economic reform.
“First and foremost is what kind of country Latinos and everyone else is going to live in?” said Diaz-Balart. “Is it going to be the land of opportunity, job creation, social mobility or is it what we’ve been living in the last four years, which is a stagnant economy.”
Polarization in Congress is at a standstill, but with more Latinos poised to gain seats that might also mean more accountability and less dodging.
There are five key House races where Latinos (who are all Democrats) have favorable chances of winning, according to a report by the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials. Of those running, particularly noteworthy are aspiring candidates such as Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) in New Mexico who could become one of the first Latina voices in the House representing that state.
The representation of Latinos in the House of representatives could increase to at most 31, but is likely to reach from 24 to 27. In some of these districts, the victory of Latino candidates rests in the hands of the Hispanic community.
“It will bring a different face and background to the people who are voting,” said Rep. Xavier Becerra (D-Calif.) “Take for example two of our candidates in California, Dr. Raul Ruiz in the Palm Springs area and Jose Hernandez—both of them are children of farmworkers and they will come to Congress with a perspective that oftentimes has been lacking in the people that vote for them in Washington D.C.”
On the Senate side, both promising contenders include tea party endorsed Ted Cruz in Texas and Democratic challenger Richard Carmona in Arizona. If Carmona wins that sends a reverberating message of the clout Latino voters have considering the anti-immigrant sentiment that has polarized that state.
In 2010, the GOP gained a landslide of Latino representatives and that pushed many to question where the future of the Republican Party is headed. With prominent rising stars such as Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, who has advocated for a version of the DREAM Act, more speculation is placed on whether Latinos in the Republican Party could break the extreme right-wing ideology that alienated some Latino voters. Once more that’s put to question in this election.
“I think the future of the GOP will rest in the hands of a Hispanic party,” said Raul Vargas, former chairman of the chairman of the Republican National Hispanic Assembly. “A Hispanic party that in 2004 voted 44 percent for president Bush. I think we’re getting back to those days where the party is recognizing the importance of the Hispanic vote.”
Yet, most eyes are locked in the Senate for a reason. Whether or not more Latinos win it, it is unlikely this election will break the filibuster majority that many advocates contend does not allow key legislative issues like the DREAM Act to pass. Still, having more Latinos represented can be an influential force.
“The structure of the Senate and its rules is one where there’s always been more of a desire to find compromise and consensus. You need 60 votes to anything major passed in the Senate anyway so there’s a need to work on a more bipartisan basis and in the Senate it has always been that way,” said Vargas. “I think we’ll have Hispanic Republican leaders in the Senate that work in that direction.”
Latino voters are going to hit record turnout in this election and there’s little room to argue even if the numbers are less than 12.2 million, analysts suggest. And more than partisan differences is the political clout of the Latino voter.
One of those galvanizing themes is immigration and particularly the DREAM Act.
For advocates of the DREAM Act, political representation has become a reverberating point throughout the campaign. Cesar Vargas, a dreamer and president of the DRM Capitol Group, said voter mobilization efforts have been unprecedented in this election.
“What we’re seeing is that a lot of the Latino vote is being galvanized by—a lot of the Dreamers being actively involved across the country—and being so close to the Latino electorate. Immigration is not the primary issue. The economy is very important, but immigration strikes at the heart of the Latino electorate,” he said.
Juan Andrade, president of the U.S. Hispanic Leadership Institute, expressed this clearly in a statement published today.
In bold words, he wrote that what’s at stake in this election is “respect.” He went on to note that regardless of who wins, the Latino community has never gotten their fair share of the credit. Yet, he pointed that Latinos always get more than their fair share of the blame when the preferred candidate loses.
“…the way we win that respect is by turning out to vote in mass, and I mean critical mass. You know you’re respected when politicians know that our issues cannot be ignored because we vote and how they vote on our issues will have consequences,” stated Andrade. “Your vote is our voice.”
This article was first published in Voxxi.
Raisa Camargo is a staff writer at Voxxi.
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November 5, 2012 0 Comments
High Latino voter turnout could deliver swing states of Nevada, Colorado, Virginia, and Florida to the Democrats
impreMedia & Latino Decisions today released the last in a series of 11 weekly tracking polls with results suggesting President Obama is poised to win a record high share of the Latino vote, and in turn likely to win key swing states and enough electoral college votes to retain the presidency. [View complete week 11 results here]
During the course of the 11 weeks of tracking, there have been fluctuations in Obama’s favorability and attitudes about key issues among Latinos, but overall results indicate the President has retained consistent support and Latinos report they are likely to turn out in record numbers.
Sixteen percent of respondents indicated that they had already voted early, with another 73% saying they were certain to vote, reflecting increasing levels of enthusiasm over the course of this poll.
The President’s support continued its steady climb with 64% saying they are certain to vote for him on election day and another 8% leaning towards him. Romney’s supporters also remained consistent, but overall he was unable to make significant inroads with Latino voters. Week 11 polling found 22% said they were certain to or might vote for Romney, compared to 24% during Week 1 polling.
Among likely Latino voters, those with consistent vote history or have already voted, 73% say they plan to vote for Obama compared to 24% for Romney and 3% undecided. If Obama wins 73% or higher of the Latino vote, it would eclipse the 72% won by Bill Clintonin his landslide re-election in 1996, and mark the highest total ever for a Democratic presidential candidate.
“With 11 weeks of tracking, we are headed towards a record level of Latino votes for a Democratic presidential candidate,” said Matt Barreto, principal investigator for Latino Decisions. “If Latinos turnout at the high rates we are expecting, they could deliver Nevada, Colorado, Florida and Virginia to Obama.”
Overall, Latino voters had a positive view of Democrats and when asked who they would vote for in the upcoming U.S. House of Representatives election, 68% had already voted or were certain they would vote for Democrats, and another 4% saying they lean towards Democrats in the Congressional vote.
“Voter enthusiasm in this election has increased significantly which is extremely encouraging” said Monica Lozano, CEO of impreMedia. “All indications are that Latinos are motivated and will turn out in record numbers proving once again that this electorate is critical for any national candidate to win.”
Among likely voters, 55% say they are more enthusiastic about voting in 2012 than in 2008, with only 22% saying they were more enthusiastic in 2008. In looking to the Tuesday election, 74% of likely Latino voters say they are “very enthusiastic.”
On the issue the candidates talk about the most – the economy – Mitt Romney has not been able to move Latino opinion over the 11 weeks of polling. When it comes to moving forward with a plan to fix the economy and create jobs, 71% of Latinos say they trust Obama and the Democrats, compared to 20% who trust Romney and the GOP. These rates are virtually unchanged from 5 weeks ago, suggesting the constant discussion of the poor state of the economy under Obama, by the Romney campaign has done little to persuade Latino voters.
Tomorrow, impreMedia and Latino Decisions will unveil our final collaborative poll of 2012 — a poll of Latinos who voted in the presidential election across 11 individual states, as well as a national poll. Some updates will be posted during the day Tuesday, and all Latino vote choice data not released until after polls close in each state.
This article was first published in Latino Decisions.
Casey A. Klofstad is an associate professor of political science at the University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL. He has a forthcoming article co-authored with Benjamin G. Bishin inPolitical Research Quarterly entitled, “The Political Incorporation of Cuban Americans: Why Won’t Little Havana Turn Blue?”. His book, Civic Talk: Peers Politics and the Future of Democracy , is now available in paperback. You can follow him on Twitter at @klofstad, and on Facebook at www.facebook.com/klofstad
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November 2, 2012 0 Comments
By Raisa Camargo, Voxxi
For a couple days a week, Meruvia spends five hours attempting to inject optimism into the Latino community to cast their ballots. She believes that apathy in the elections primarily comes not from disillusionment, but the general consensus that voting is not important.
“Some people say that even when they vote they don’t think their vote is valuable at all,” she said. “What I say to them is that when they vote for their congressman, representatives, senators in the Capitol, the numbers is what makes a difference. Then they start seeing the process and they start thinking about it.”
“It’s an educational issue”Meruvia is just one of the many volunteers that has attempted to break that cycle by knocking on hundreds of doors since the start of the election and is also part of the Obama campaign. Coincidentally, she lives in the battleground state of Virginia and has voted in almost every election cycle after she arrived to the United States from Bolivia in 1963.
“There’s a democratic process no matter which way they go,” said Meruvia. “That’s a right that’s given to us that we don’t want to pass up.”
Now with four days left until Election Day, expectations are running high on a projection that the National Association of Elected and Appointed Officials affirms will hold true. An estimated 12.2 million Latinos are expected to cast their ballots on November 6.
NALEO asserts that this is a conservative estimate based on previous turn out rates and data drawn from Census surveys. There’s a possibility these figures might coincide.
Early voting is underway and election officials are reporting that an estimated 19 million people have already made their choice in this election, according to an analysis by the United States Elections Project at the George Mason University, Associated Press and election state departments.
Michael McDonald, Election project coordinator and professor of public and international affairs at the university, explained that based on early voting numbers the overall general electorate turnout rate is not likely to drop off significantly.
“What seems most likely is the percent of voters who are casting an early vote appears higher than it was in 2008 and it’s something very unusual to happen that there could be a big drop-off in turnout in this election,” he said.
Since 2008, there are three states that have broken its record in terms of early voting including Iowa, Montana and Louisiana. He added that other states such as Florida and North Carolina are on track to break those records.
“There are stories coming out of Florida of people waiting in extremely long lines right now to vote,” McDonald said. “The numbers tend to ramp up the closer you get to Election Day.”
Still, the U.S. Elections Project does not have specific data on the number of Latinos who are participating in early voting. Virtually no one knows or civic voting organizations do not want to report those figures just yet. With all eyes locked on the battleground states of Colorado, Nevada and Florida, there’s plenty of expectation on what those numbers are going to look like for Latinos.
In Florida and Colorado, the election is still a tossup, while Nevada is leaning Democrat, reports Charlie Cook in The Cook Political Report. Due to the demographic shift, Cook explained in an analysis published in the National Journal, that to get 270 electoral votes both contenders are relying on a couple of point leads.
Cook cites that Obama needs to win states with 17 percent of 94 electoral votes in seven toss-up states, while Romney needs 79 percent of the 94 electoral votes. Currently, he indicated that Obama and Romney are within “5 percentage points of each other and in most they are within 2 or 3 points of each other.”
“This race appears to be going to the wire,” he stated.
In the I-4 corridor between Orlando and Tampa, a majority of Latinos probably already know that. Yulissa Arce is one of them. She is a coordinator for Mi Familia Vota in Orlando and cited that volunteers have knocked on 20,000 doors and conducted three dozen phone calls within the last month.
“We work all day everyday” said Arce, while adding that last weekend they saw a good number of people or a little under 500,000 people that voted between last Saturday and Sunday.
She added, “It’s a little difficult to convince Latinos, but we’ve definitely seen a change in attitudes.”
There are numerous reasons why Latino turnout does not resemble the population growth and some analysts fail to acknowledge that voting is also habit forming. The lack of civic engagement education at schools has also been cited as a crucial factor. What’s more is that voting is not ingrained throughout their lives and particularly when naturalized citizens come from countries whose democracies do not empower them to vote.
In the scenario that Latino turn out does not meet the projected growth, analysts speculate the message that sends in terms of political representation may be detrimental. Yet, Mark Lopez of the Hispanic Leadership Fund believes that despite this assumption, the Latino electorate is slighted to increase in years to come.
“If the numbers fall short of some of the projections, there are some naysayers that are always going to say: ‘See it’s not important as everyone says,’ but I think the thing to keep in mind is that the demographic numbers show the growth of the population—it’s growing and we know it’s more than it was in 2010, 2008,” he said. “If you look at the buzz in this presidential election even compared to last time, the number of states where we’re talking about the Latino vote can make a difference has expanded.”
In 2004, Lopez indicated no one was looking into Ohio, Virginia or North Carolina in terms of turnout.
“If people underestimate the Hispanic vote, they do so at their own peril,” he said.
An estimated 17 percent of Hispanics reside in nine states that are considered key and could potentially tilt the electoral balance. These states include: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin. The Democrats are staking an edge in New Mexico and Illinois, while Republicans are slighted to lead in Arizona, although that has now become a questionable scenario.
The Pew Hispanic Center, recently noted that 24 million Latinos are eligible to vote this year. Cook also cited that four million Latinos are registered to vote now than they were four years ago. For many analysts, these figures are paramount for Latinos hoping to gain ground with political representation.
This article was first published in Voxxi.
[Photo by NewsTaco]
October 12, 2012 0 Comments
By Angela Millan-Epstein, Voxxi
OPINION – Thank you Martha Raddatz, and the team who prepared the questions for the vice presidential debate, for completely disappearing Mexico and Latin America from the Foreign Policy map, and for making us invisible. For several years we have heard much rhetoric about the threat that Mexico represents for the United States, and as a consequence Mexicans have swallowed the wall, and put up with pressure from the American government. This rhetoric has also served to justify the biased against Mexicans in some segments of the population. All, while both, the Anglo and Spanish media have happily reported on the “threats,” over and over.
For ninety minutes I heard important issues about Foreign Policy: Libya, Afghanistan, Iraq, Israel, but not one single mention of Mexico or Latin America; and that I call Malarkey, a new word in my vocabulary that means non sense, and courtesy of Vice President Joe Biden. I can’t understand this major oversight. It makes me think that it is a reflection of the American Foreign Policy, which does not consider Mexico or Latin America important, relevant or even interesting, coupled with ignorance and perhaps some arrogance.
To me, it is unacceptable that the moderator did not integrate Mexico into this debate, especially after the many reports written about the perceived or real security threat. Only last year Richard Haas, President of the Council on Foreign Relations released the report written by David Shirk “The Drug War in Mexico: Confronting a Shared Threat” that provides a fresh look at “one of the most important security threats in the Western Hemisphere” and suggests recommendations for policy in both Washington and Mexico City. In another instance, The Homeland Security Newswire had this headline in late 2010 “U.S.: Mexico’s drug war posing growing threat to U.S. national security, and Adam Entous, and Nathan Hodge of the Wall Street Journal wrote that the US was not considering sending troops other than in a training or liaison capacity because “it is unclear how much of an expanded American role the Mexicans will accept.” On another instance, a U.S. military official said that Admiral Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said that he is “growing increasingly concerned about the security situation” and asked his staff to work with NorthCom to explore increased engagement with the Mexican military.
So, with these and other cases where Mexico is cited as critical for the security of the US, Raddatz has no excuses to not have included questions about Mexico and the region. While her performance as moderator was very good and she received immediate congratulations, clearly this fact went unnoticed by many. The New York Times Andrew Rosethal’s blog posted, Eva Longoria exclaimed in twitter her happiness, and even members of the Spanish media posted on Raddatz twitter account, congratulating her. That is Malarkey too.
This article was first published in Voxxi.
Angela Millan Epstein is a former News Correspondent and Anchor for Univision and NBC’s Canal de Noticias’, has published in several sites in the Americas and worked in content and technology with IBM and ScreamingMedia.
[Photo courtesy Commission on Presidential Debates]
