Who Should Win The Oscars, And Who Will Win Them
The Academy Awards will be presented today in order to pay homage to the best and brightest of 2011. I will not be hosting an Oscar party, because most of my Oscar parties have more to do with lingering shame than movies. Nonetheless, I would like to offer my predictions for the top six categories. I am going to offer two sets of predictions. On one side, I will tell you who I feel should win and why. The second prediction will reveal who will probably win and why. My methods are not scientific, but they do make sense.
You can also follow me on Twitter during the awards show. Here we go…
Actress in a Supporting Role:
- Bérénice Bejo in “The Artist”
- Jessica Chastain in “The Help”
- Melissa McCarthy in “Bridesmaids”
- Janet McTeer in “Albert Nobbs”
- Octavia Spencer in “The Help”
Who should win: Melissa McCarthy
McCarthy was hilarious in “Bridesmaids.” In fact, she stole the movie. Anyone who tells you otherwise has not seen this movie. I do not see McCarthy getting nominated any time soon. Her next films are comedies with Jason Bateman and a spin off of Judd Apatow’s “Knocked Up.”
Who will probably win: Melissa McCarthy
The supporting acting awards are usually the most unpredictable part of the evening. Unfortunately they are usually sandwiched between a lesser award and your first bathroom break. If you do not believe me ask Marisa Tomei or Cuba Gooding Jr. McCarthy is the most unconventional actress on this list and the actresses from “The Help” will cancel each other out.
Actor in a Supporting Role:
- Kenneth Branagh in “My Week with Marilyn”
- Jonah Hill in “Moneyball”
- Nick Nolte in “Warrior”
- Christopher Plummer in “Beginners”
- Max von Sydow in “Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close”
Who should win: Jonah Hill
Every critic is raving about Brad Pitt. However Jonah Hill did a great job playing his nervous second in command. I will particularly remember this performance as the moment Jonah Hill died and became Seth Rogen. Does anyone remember Seth Rogen before he shed the fat and funny?
Who will probably win: Christopher Plummer
Nick Nolte is this year’s Mickey Rourke. This should be a neck and neck race between Plummer and Von Sydow. They are both veteran actors that have never won an academy award. This award is usually reserved for that. Oscar gold usually goes to actors who play dying characters or outcasts who learn to love before it is too late. Plummer plays a man dying of terminal cancer. Von Sydow plays an outcast. Advantage Plummer.
Actor in a Leading Role:
- Demián Bichir in “A Better Life”
- George Clooney in “The Descendants”
- Jean Dujardin in “The Artist”
- Gary Oldman in “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy”
- Brad Pitt in “Moneyball”
Who should win: Brad Pitt
Brad Pitt did a better job at humanizing Billy Beane than “The Social Network” did with Mark Zuckerberg. He had great onscreen chemistry with Jonah Hill. Furthermore, Brad Pitt took a movie built on statistics and turned it into an enjoyable film that even people that hate baseball could enjoy. I like the fact that Bichir was nominated, but I think this is more of a flashback to the 1980’s when Edward James Olmos was nominated for “Stand and Deliver.”
Who will probably win: George Clooney
The Academy Awards love George Clooney. If he is nominated for two awards, you can be certain that he will walk away with at least one statue. Gary Oldman is a solid second, but not because of his skill as an actor, but more because he has never walked away with the statue.
Actress in a Leading Role:
- Glenn Close in “Albert Nobbs”
- Viola Davis in “The Help”
- Rooney Mara in “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”
- Meryl Streep in “The Iron Lady”
- Michelle Williams in “My Week with Marilyn”
Who should win: Meryl Streep
Meryl Streep has no equal. There is no one that could match her talent or skill. If you told me tomorrow that there was a movie being filmed about Kurt Cobain’s life starring Meryl Streep – it would peak my interests. Meryl Streep as Thatcher was a stroke a genius that has gone noticed but it is unlikely to be recognized.
Who will probably win: Michelle Williams
Two words. Heath Ledger. Oscar is a very sentimental award. They are not going to pass up a chance to have Michelle Williams raise the award over her head and thank Ledger as the camera pans over to their daughter. That’s what awards shows are all about.
Directing:
- “The Artist” Michel Hazanavicius
- “The Descendants” Alexander Payne
- “Hugo” Martin Scorsese
- “Midnight in Paris” Woody Allen
- “The Tree of Life” Terrence Malick
Who should win: Alexander Payne
Payne is clearly overdue. His films are always about fractured and segmented individuals, and we love them but we are not in love with them. “The Descendants” was a pretty good movie, but I think it will get lost in the shuffle between the likes of “The Tree of Life” and “Midnight in Paris”
Who will probably win: Terrence Malick
Terrence Malick will win because he will receive that vote from members who will vote for him because they don’t take well to intellectual movies – and anything they don’t understand must be genius. I think the reason why you see standbys like Woody Allen and Martin Scorsese is merely to round out the category.
Best Picture:
- “The Artist” Thomas Langmann, Producer
- “The Descendants” Jim Burke, Alexander Payne and Jim Taylor, Producers
- “Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close” Scott Rudin, Producer
- “The Help” Brunson Green, Chris Columbus and Michael Barnathan, Producers
- “Hugo” Graham King and Martin Scorsese, Producers
- “Midnight in Paris” Letty Aronson and Stephen Tenenbaum, Producers
- “Moneyball” Michael De Luca, Rachael Horovitz and Brad Pitt, Producers
- “The Tree of Life” Sarah Green, Bill Pohlad, Dede Gardner and Grant Hill, Producers
- “War Horse” Steven Spielberg and Kathleen Kennedy, Producers
The “No Duh” award of the evening goes to:
“The Help” is going to win. Oscar voters think they are changing society when they vote for a movie like “The Help.” As if a movie about racism is going to make petty trophy wives take a look at their lives, and make them jump out a window or off a bridge. That might make society better. The ironic part is that most of these wives will cheer on “The Help” without appreciate the irony that comes as they sweep the shrimp tails off their laps expecting their own maids to catch them in midair.
[Screenshot By Oscars.com]