The Politics of Immigration Reform, By the Numbers

Victor Landa, NewsTaco

If it’s Tuesday, then immigration reform is possible. But check with me on Wednesday, because that may change.

We could follow this pattern, week-in and week-out, for the rest of the year and change will be the only constant – and we won’t be one step closer to immigration reform. It makes for great theater, and the analysts will justify their fees on national TV. But aside form that not much will change.

John Boehner signaled that he and his party would unveil a one-sheet set of immigration principles that would frame their discussions with the White House and their colleagues in congress. Soon after that he announced that the one-page cheat-sheet was in the works. The he proclaimed it would be released, then it was released. At at each instance the pundits and commentators and bloggers reacted … predictably. One side of the political aisle predicted an imminent proposal and a good chance for immigration reform this year, as the other side squashed those chances.

It’s been this way and it’s not going to change, do the math.

According to an NBCNews article, 143 U.S. House GOP members “represent congressional districts where Latinos make up less than 10 percent of the population”: that’s 60 percent of the politicians who will eventually vote on an immigration bill.  So for all the threats of Latino voter backlash, there is no reason for a majority of Republicans to fear.  And we’ll take this one step further: that 60 percent who remain unfazed toward immigration have everything to gain by opposing immigration reform – their constituents are squarely against it.

There are approximately 22 House GOP members (in California, Florida, Illinois, Minnesota, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, New Jersey, New York, Texas and Virginia) who are at risk because of immigration reform. Those members represent districts where the Latino vote could affect the outcome of their reelection. Those 22 have “seen the light”and are open to changes to the immigration law. They can safely tout their openness to Latinos in their district and gain their favor knowing full-well that a bill will not make it to a vote, or that if it does and they vote for it, it won’t pass the 143 who hold serve in Congress.

Everything else, all the promoting and postulating, is empty of any meaningful political substance. The numbers don’t lie. There’s no significant, viable pressure for immigration reform where it counts.

So we’ll continue to speculate, because it makes for good content and fodder for the opinion programs; and the politicians will milk their bases for whatever their heightened sentiments will give. And that will be that. Numbers don’t lie, not on Tuesday.

[Photo by Stephen D. Melkisethian]

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