How the Republican Party Can Strike a Nail Into Their Own Coffin

By Dr. Henry Flores, NewsTaco

Before I start I want to be perfectly clear, this is not my regular column but just a short commentary on the recent polling results released this week by Latino Decisions.  My regular column is forthcoming and focuses on the police shootings in Ferguson, Missouri.

I’ve had my differences with Senator Marco Rubio, Ruben Navarette and other Latino Republicans over many public policy issues in the past but one thing we all agree on is if GOP Congressmen don’t stop with their anti-immigrant comments soon they will be in electoral difficulty, even sooner than in 2016.  A recent Latino Decisions poll noted that Latinos who already have a negative view of the Republican Party generally, move further away from the Republican Party when exposed to anti-immigrant media ads.

One thousand Latino registered voters who regularly watch Spanish language television were subjected to a media experiment.  Six hundred of the viewers were exposed to anti-immigrant ads while another 400 were not.  The first set resided in three specific media markets, Denver, Atlanta and Orlando while the second set came from a national sample that excluded the three named markets.  What Latino Decisions found was extraordinary.

What was discovered was that generally Latinos who saw the ads had a 20-25% worse view of the Republican Party than those who had not seen the ads.  The reason this is important is that polling data going back to 1980 has indicated that Latinos generally support Democratic presidential candidates at a 65% rate on average and the candidates of the GOP at a 35% rate.  These percentages are averages and in some years the support levels are higher or lower depending on a lot of factors, still the patterns are relatively stable.

Given the effects recorded by Latino Decisions the anti-immigrant rhetoric will have the tendency of depressing Latino support for the GOP even lower than it is already.  If this is the case, according to Latino Decisions, the Republican Party’s hold over as many as 44 house seats could be in jeopardy in November, 2014.  The implication of all of this are that Latinos apparently will play an important and significant role in the off-season elections allowing the Democrats to retain control of the Senate and cut into Republican dominance in the House.

Another implication is that if the GOP does not stop the anti-immigrant posturing, Latinos may become more solidified among the Democratic faithful making the Republicans an endangered species in future general elections.

So I agree with Senator Rubio and other notable Republicans that if they wish to remain relevant politically in the future they better stop their racist, anti-immigrant rantings and start proposing some serious and constructive immigration policy.

Henry Flores, PhD, is a Distinguished University Research Professor, Institute of Public Administration and Public Service; Director, Masters in Public Administration (MPA); Professor of International Relations and Political Science at St. Mary’s University.

[Photo by DonkeyHotey/Flickr]

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