A Mandate to Rule?

*Dr. Flores says that when you drill-down the numbers, 18% is not a Republican  mandate. VL

By Dr. Henry Flores, NewsTaco

Republicans are claiming they have a mandate to rule now that they have swept Democrats from office in the 2014 mid-term elections.  As a statistician this makes me suspicious.  When someone says something like “the odds that something or other is going to happen is greater than____” it makes me cringe.  It’s like the anesthesiologist who told me before administering drugs to my aging mother that the “probability” that she would be ok was more than 50%.  I actually got angry with the good doctor and made it clear that I was a statistician and also an experienced litigation research scientist and wanted to know if he wanted to restate his position, which he nervously did.

Why Republicans Are Saying They Have a Mandate? 

The simple answer to this question is because they won some elections by large margins, 60-38 for instance, and they won a majority control of the United States Senate for the first time in ten years.  The problem with this claim is that voter turnout was very low.  So, that the winning margins were based upon very small numbers.  Nationally, the turnout rate was only approximately 30%.  Republicans won 60% of the 30% votes that were cast.  This really means that Republicans only received 18% of the votes of all eligible voters in their respective elections.  This is far from a mandate.  What this result reflects is the ability to get their voters out and suppress those of their opposition.  These election results are far from what any statistician or voter analyst of any repute would call a mandate.  These election results are simply that, election results reflecting the winner of a poorly attended election.

Still, Republican politicians and pundits will continue to declare to no end that the people have spoken and are demanding that President Obama’s policies be rescinded and that his administration come under closer scrutiny.  Well, maybe 18% of the electorate wants it this way but NOT the majority of the American people.

What Happened to the American People During the Mid-Term? 

If the majority of American voters did not support the Republican winners or, obviously, the Democrat losers who did they support?  This is a question that a dear friend and colleague of mine has been addressing for a number of years and still has difficulty explaining where these absent voters went.  I suspect, though, that there are a variety of reasons why Americans did not participate in the mid-terms and do so, at barely higher rates in the presidential elections because it has been decades since a majority of American voters elected a president as well.

Nevertheless, one major reason another colleague and myself uncovered a number of years ago as to why the majority of voters stay away from the polls is that the average voter is just fed-up with both parties and has no alternative but to stay away from voting. Some vote “holding their noses” but for the most part these voters simply don’t vote. Research has shown that less than 30% of voters espouse candidates of the Republican Party nationally, another 30% support candidates of the Democratic Party and 40% are left without an alternative.  Maybe it’s time for the emergence of a viable third party.  I’m not referring to the Libertarians because they stand for no government at all which would just create a world full of chaos.  No, maybe it’s time to start talking substantively about a third party.

Historically, third political parties have served as wake up calls to the two major parties resulting in one of the parties absorbing the agendas of the third parties making one of the two majors more viable.  Right now both Democrats and Republicans, especially Republicans, have moved too far away from the mainstream and neither is speaking to the needs of the “silent, non-voting majority.”

A Mandate to Rule

If victorious politicians wish to claim a mandate in future elections they need to speak to and for the majority of Americans and this can only be accomplished by walking with and listening to us.  The American electorate is changing demographically and our needs are not those represented by the sitting “old white guys” in Washington or in many of the state capitals.  These sitting politicians need to stop manipulating voting lists and let the people vote.  But, I don’t see this happening any time soon after all I don’t think that the “old white guys” in Washington want to give up their keys to the senatorial chambers anytime soon.

Henry Flores, PhD, is a Distinguished University Research Professor, Institute of Public Administration and Public Service; Director, Masters in Public Administration (MPA); Professor of International Relations and Political Science at St. Mary’s University.

[Photo by Stephen Melkisethian/Flickr]

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