Will California ever become a majority-Latino state? Maybe not

*Because the immigration from Mexico and Latin America has fallen after the recession, and because the U.S. Latino birthrate have fallen as well, the projections of when Latinos will become the majority in California have been adjusted. It won’t be in 2050, as projected, and not before 2060, if at all. Yet, California’s “demographic future” will continue to be tied to Latinos. VL


pew fact tankBy Mark Hugo  Lopez ad Jens Manuel Krogstad, Pew Research Center

California reached a milestone in 2014 when it became only the third U.S. state where white non-Hispanics were outnumbered by another racial or ethnic group. At about 15 million, Hispanics for the first time constituted California’s largest racial or ethnic group, according to the state’s Department of Finance.

No Latino Majority Now Projected in California Before 2060However, [tweet_dis]it could be a half-century (or longer) before Hispanics become a full majority in California[/tweet_dis], if that demographic milestone is reached at all, according to scaled-back state population projections published by the state Finance Department.

Under projections published in 2007, the state’s Hispanic population was expected to reach 31 million in 2050, or 52.1% of all Californians. But according to updated projections released late last year, Hispanics are now expected to number 23.7 million in 2050, or 47.6% of all Californians. That pushes the prospect of a Hispanic demographic majority further into the future – perhaps to sometime after 2060.

The 2014 population projections also included an estimate for 2060 that indicates that Hispanics may not reach a majority by that year, when they are expected to number 25.5 million, or 49.3% of California’s population.

This change in the projected growth of the Hispanic population is driven by a number of factors.

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[Photo by Chris Lewis/Flickr]
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